12 August 2012

Quiet weekend in the tropics

Dry air and shear have taken their toll on the two systems I mentioned on Friday.  TD7 was downgraded to an open wave on Saturday at 15Z, and the complex disturbance near the Cape Verdes (the one that had potentially two distinct centers) has been eroded away by huge amounts of dry air streaming off of Africa.  The large-scale visible satellite image below shows the basin as of 2:45pm EDT today.  Ex-TD7 is the feature near 15N 67W (south of Puerto Rico), and the eastern Atlantic "Invest" is now up near 21N 39W (not near anything!). 

Neither of these systems are down for the count though, and we certainly need to keep a close eye on Ex-TD7 as it traverses the Caribbean.  The system in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to intensify over the next few days as it recurves to the NW then N... the environment will be conducive for some strengthening and it could become TD8/Gordon this week.  As far as Ex-TD7 goes, it is presently in a very high-shear environment (~25kts), but as this image from 5:15pm EDT today shows, it's at least a very potent and coherent easterly wave.

Elsewhere, another easterly wave has just exited the African coast today, but models aren't too bullish on developing it just yet.

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