24 August 2004

Strong tropical wave exits Africa...

First, to wrap up previous activity, the final advisory was written on
Danielle on 21 Aug at 15Z.  It is still a low-level swirl in the open
ocean west of the Azores and shows no signs of coming back.  Ending
chronologically with Danielle (or alphabetically with Earl), the season
stands at 21.75 Named Storm Days, 9.75 Hurricane Days, and 1.00 Intense
Hurricane Days.

The main story is a strong wave that exited Africa on Friday afternoon
and is now at about 12N 35W, tracking westward at a healthy 13kts. 
Conditions are favorable for development, it will likely be upgraded to
TD6 in the next 6-12 hours.  The next name on deck is Frances.

Looking ahead, there's a huge mid-level circulation with associated
convection still over western Africa (~12W).  This will be interesting
to watch as it enters the eastern Atlantic in a day or two.  We are now
in the prime of the "Cape Verde Season", so these waves that exit the
African coast near the Cape Verde Islands climatologically stand a
decent chance of making it to a named storm.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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