09 August 2004

No named storms, yet...

The remnants of TD2 have traversed the hostile Caribbean Sea, recently
passed through the Yucatan Channel, and now entering the Gulf of Mexico
(23N 88W). It is taking advantage of the improving environmental
conditions and shows signs of re-development after its 5-day hiatus. 
There's weak northerly wind shear through the entire Gulf, and SSTs are
29+ C.  An aircraft recon flight into the system later today will give a
better idea of the pressure and wind structure.  The eastern Gulf coast
should be watching this very closely... there is a chance for landfall
from the FL panhandle westward to LA, and possibly as a hurricane.

There is a very vigorous tropical wave over the Windward Islands (around
12N 61W).  This is the same wave I mentioned in the Aug 6 update when it
was out at 40W.  It exited Africa on August 2, and has gradually become
more organized, and could be upgraded to TD3 or even TS Bonnie later
today.  It is tracking west at 20kts.

Lastly, there's a disorganized wave just west of the Cape Verde Islands,
at about 10N 30W, but some of the computer models cling onto it and
develop it.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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