Beryl rapidly intensifies to become unprecedented Category 4 hurricane in June

Since yesterday's post when Beryl just reached Category 1 hurricane intensity, it has exploded and in less than 24 hours it's now a Category 4 hurricane.  It's hard to communicate how unbelievable this is.

The earliest there has ever been a Category 4 hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic was July 8 (Dennis 2005) and that was near Jamaica.  The earliest there has ever been a Category 4+ hurricane east of the Caribbean in the "Main Development Region" was August 7 (Unnamed 1899). And one more incredible stat from Sam Lillo (a good follow on Twitter: @splillo) is that although this intensification rate has happened just a handful of times before, the earliest it ever happened was September 1.  By the way, the earliest Category 5 on record was Emily on July 17, 2005.

24-hour infrared satellite animation spanning early afternoon Saturday through early afternoon Sunday.  Tropical storm to Category 4 hurricane in this time.

With La Niña on the way and the ocean temperatures already looking like the second week of September, this is precisely the type of outlier event that people have been talking about for months heading into this season.  When you have an unprecedented favorable environment, you're bound to see unprecedented tropical cyclone activity.

The NHC forecast maintains Beryl at major hurricane intensity through Thursday, then weakening somewhat as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, though still a very strong and dangerous hurricane.  The official track forecast follows the model guidance closely, which is tightly clustered with virtually no outliers anymore.

We will have ground-based radar coverage of the hurricane from Barbados, and you can find the latest long animation at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/. 

Elsewhere, Invest 94L has crossed over the Yucatan Peninsula and is now over the Bay of Campeche where it has a very brief window to develop before its final encounter with land. It's quite close to happening, and NHC is giving it an 80% probability.

And finally, Invest 96L is following in Beryl's footsteps and has a 70% chance of development in the coming week.  It will reach the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday-Thursday, just 2-3 days after Beryl's significant and historical landfall -- a very unwelcome visitor.

The next two names on the list are Chris and Debby.

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