Tropical Atlantic Update: Beryl becomes extremely rare June hurricane east of the Caribbean

29 June 2024

Beryl becomes extremely rare June hurricane east of the Caribbean

Invest 95L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 on Friday afternoon and then to the second named storm of the season, Beryl, on Friday night. It is taking full advantage of the September-like conditions in the tropical Atlantic and is now a Category 1 hurricane as of Saturday afternoon... the furthest east a hurricane has ever formed this early in the year. It's expected to reach Category 3 intensity by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday.

As of Saturday afternoon, NHC is forecasting Beryl to reach the Lesser Antilles midday Monday and then be in the vicinity of Jamaica on Wednesday. During that trek, it should maintain major hurricane intensity, then perhaps weaken slightly as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday due to slightly stronger vertical wind shear. It will still be a dangerous hurricane though... an extrapolated forecast track would be centered near Cozumel by Friday, but as you can see below, the cone of uncertainty would also include areas from Belize up to western Cuba.

This is not normal. June 30 is early for the first hurricane of the season (technical aside: I say June 30 because as of now, the 18:00 UTC data point in the working best track is 60 kt, a tropical storm... the 00:00 UTC data point on June 30 will be at hurricane intensity). The last time it happened earlier was in 2012 (Chris on June 21), and the median date over the past fifty years is August 4. One disclaimer related to this chart: Hurricane Alex occurred in January 2016, but I don't count that as part of the 2016 season; it was meteorologically a late-comer to the 2015 season.

As I pointed out yesterday, there has been just one hurricane formation east of the Caribbean in June, and that was during the all-time record-breaking hurricane season of 1933. So to say this is extremely rare is an understatement.

Two things could really make Beryl extraordinary if it reaches at least Category 3 ("major hurricane") intensity by Sunday evening: 1) WHERE it's happening and 2) WHEN it's happening. Since records began in 1851, there have been only two known major hurricanes to occur prior to July 7 and they were both in the Gulf of Mexico:

- Alma (June 8, 1966)

- Audrey (June 27, 1957)

And ZERO major hurricanes have crossed the Lesser Antilles earlier than August 4 -- that was the infamous Hurricane Allen in 1980. This would be a little over a month ahead of that incredible record if it happens (which is the official forecast).

So, back to the storm itself. Beryl is moving over ocean temperatures that are as warm as they'd be at the peak of the season in the second week of September, so there is endless fuel. Model guidance for intensity has a bit of a spread, but as of now, it seems likely that Beryl's intensity should peak ~ Category 3 on Monday-Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, there's also strong agreement in the models that Beryl will continue the same motion, which will bring it into the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.

Other than Hurricane Beryl, Invest 94L is over the Yucatan Peninsula now and will enter the Bay of Campeche tomorrow where it has a 50% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone before moving back inland over Mexico. The primary threat associated with this is heavy rain and the resulting flash flooding.

Then, there is another easterly wave right behind Beryl that has a 70% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within the coming week. It should be tagged as Invest 96L already, but for whatever reason, it's not. Through at least the next five days, it looks like it will take the same path as Beryl... very bad news for the Lesser Antilles. It looks like a bit of a mess in the center of this infrared satellite animation, but as we saw with Beryl, that can change quickly when the ocean says it's already the second week of September.