TD14 losing the battle.

If you recall Monday's update, things looked favorable for TD14 to
quickly become a TS.  However, the strong vertical shear (presently on
the order of 35kts westerly) has been relentless due to the deep trough
scooping though the Gulf of Mexico, and the storm continues to look more
and more DISorganized.  Recent satellite imagery reveals what seems to
be a frontal structure rather than spiral bands, indicating the
Depression is already becoming extratropical.

At 15Z today, TD14 was located at 22.3N 80.2W (inland over central Cuba;
their third landfall of the season) and tracking NE at 15kts.  A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for central Cuba and the Bahamas. 
It is expected to continue to the NE, picking up forward speed and
losing what tropical characteristics it still has as it's absorbed into
the mid-latitude trough.  It looks like the storm will not get named...
although the winds may reach TS intensity, it might not be tropical in
nature by that time.

The tropical wave SW of the Cape Verdes referenced yesterday is
encountering much higher shear now, and attention can shift away from it
for the next couple days, at which point we'll see if there's anything
left of it.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD14 fighting strong shear.

TD14 has been struggling against strong (20kts) westerly shear since
yesterday, which is why it still has not reached TS intensity.  The
low-level center is removed from the convection, although the convection
has been deep and persistent.  The future intensity will be a delicate
battle between shear, land, SSTs, and baroclinicity, but in general, I
don't see it becoming much more than a weak TS.  The IR satellite
imagery reveals no real banding features, no classic CDO, just
convection scattered around a mid-level center.

At 15Z, TD14 was located at 17.9N 82.7W (130 miles southwest of Grand
Cayman) and tracking NE at 4kts.  Maxiumum sustained winds are 30kts and
the MSLP is 1004mb.  Some slight strengthening is likely (to perhaps
50kts according to the latest NHC forecast) due to the latter two
factors I mentioned above [or major strengthening according to the GFDL
model, which makes it a minimal hurricane before hitting Cuba, then a
strong CAT2 as it passes over the Bahamas].  Note the motion... it's
already NE, so that will remove FL from the primary threat zone.  A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, Isle of
Youth, and central Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
Bahamas.  The advancing trough will continue forcing the track to
accelerate to the NE, crossing over Cuba on Wednesday morning, the
Bahamas Wednesday night, and be up by Newfoundland by midday Friday. 
Again, if/when this gets named, it will be Marco.

The tropical wave I had mentioned a few days ago near the Cape Verde
Islands is re-organizing somewhat.  It's located at approximately 7N 31W
(1100km SW of the Cape Verdes) and heading W at 15kts.  It is also in a
region of high shear, but that MAY relax over the next couple days.  

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD14 forms in northwest Caribbean.

The area of disturbed weather that was in the southwest Caribbean late
last week and during the weekend has drifted north and become much
better organized, exactly how the models had predicted five days ago
(they're on a roll this season).  As I watched the system over the
weekend, it was remarkable to watch in real-time a tropical cyclone
develop out of nothing more than a broad area of convection.  Hour by
hour, the convection became more centralized, a mid-level circulation
developed, deeper convection, and finally a low-level circulation was
obvious on visible imagery this morning (I'm sure I'm not the ONLY one
who woke up excitedly to check the first available VIS images for a
low-level circulation...).

At 15Z today, TD14 was at 17.8N 83.0W and tracking N at 10kts. 
Intensity is 25kts and 1009mb, but is expected to quickly reach TS
status today (and would become the thirteenth named storm of the season,
Marco).  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands,
Isle of Youth, and central Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
for southern FL from Golden Beach to Key West.

The forecast track is generally N-NNE, allowing the center to pass east
of the Florida peninsula, but admitedly, the distance at which it's
forecast to pass by at is within the forecast error (hence the TS Watch
for southern FL).  There is a very deep trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico which will be the primary steering mechanism for this storm, so
it's movement and amplitude will play a huge role in track forecasting. 
The GFDL model is very insistent on making this a strong storm, hitting
Cuba as a 92kt CAT2 hurricane, then the Bahamas as a 103kt CAT3
hurricane.  The SSTs in its path would support a major hurricane, it
will just be a matter of how Cuba affects it and how much shear the
trough will introduce.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.