16 October 2002

TD14 losing the battle.

If you recall Monday's update, things looked favorable for TD14 to
quickly become a TS.  However, the strong vertical shear (presently on
the order of 35kts westerly) has been relentless due to the deep trough
scooping though the Gulf of Mexico, and the storm continues to look more
and more DISorganized.  Recent satellite imagery reveals what seems to
be a frontal structure rather than spiral bands, indicating the
Depression is already becoming extratropical.

At 15Z today, TD14 was located at 22.3N 80.2W (inland over central Cuba;
their third landfall of the season) and tracking NE at 15kts.  A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for central Cuba and the Bahamas. 
It is expected to continue to the NE, picking up forward speed and
losing what tropical characteristics it still has as it's absorbed into
the mid-latitude trough.  It looks like the storm will not get named...
although the winds may reach TS intensity, it might not be tropical in
nature by that time.

The tropical wave SW of the Cape Verdes referenced yesterday is
encountering much higher shear now, and attention can shift away from it
for the next couple days, at which point we'll see if there's anything
left of it.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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