The current record-latest first hurricane formation is September 11. This year has not had any hurricanes yet, and there is nothing on the horizon. The September 11 date has been met twice: 2002 and 2013. There is a slight nuance to this, however. Prior to the reliable satellite era which began about 50 years ago, some storms and portions of storm lifetimes were certainly missed.
With that in mind, there are two years in the historical records that had zero known hurricanes the entire season: 1907 and 1914. In the satellite era, the fewest number of hurricanes in a season is two, and that happened in 1982 and 2013.
Another metric we commonly look at is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE. Rather than a simple count of storms, it is an integrated quantity that accounts for overall storm intensity and duration. For reference, an average season has about 122 ACE units (the units are 10⁻⁴ kt²) and the climatological average by this date is 60.
The ACE this year is at just 4.4, which is about 7% of average for the date. The last time a season had less ACE than this year was 1941 and a handful of years before that. However, those were all prior to the satellite era. In the satellite era, this is the slowest start to a hurricane season on record.
The reason for this extremely quiet season is clear: the developing very strong El Niño. The relationship between El Niño, La Niña, and Atlantic hurricane activity has been well-known for quite some time: El Niño tends to suppress activity and La Niña tends to enhance activity. The developing El Niño is "moderate" as of now, and is forecast to become "very strong" (likely the strongest on record) by later this Fall and into Winter.
Here's a look at ACE values through September 11 during El Niños during the satellite era. For comparison to 2026, I am using the June-July-August RONI value and counting only El Niños of moderate or higher strength (at least 1.0°C):
YEAR RONI ACE
1972 +1.1°C 32.2
1987 +1.1°C 17.7
1997 +1.5°C 34.4
2015 +1.3°C 26.6
2026 +1.4°C 4.4
Among its peers, activity across the Atlantic is clearly minimal this year.
We will probably still see lingering impacts of this El Niño on the 2027 Atlantic hurricane season...
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