Dire days ahead for Florida as Milton intensifies

Milton is still a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico as of late Sunday morning, but is very close to reaching hurricane intensity.  It will track eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and reach the Florida peninsula late Wednesday; however, significant impacts will begin before that.

Overlay of all five track forecast cones from NHC spanning when TD14 first formed on Saturday morning through late Sunday morning.  The cone only represents where the center of the storm may track with 2/3 probability; it does not show where impacts will be experienced.

The forecasts from the models and NHC have been fairly stable (not varying much from run to run), which continues to paint a dire picture for many parts of already-storm-ravaged western Florida.  There is strong agreement on a track toward the central part of the peninsula, with a landfall late Wednesday, and at an intensity of at least a Category 3 hurricane.

Not only is there relatively light vertical wind shear in the Gulf right now, the water temperature is still record-breaking warm.  And it's not just warm in terms of the sea surface temperature, but also through a depth as measured by ocean heat content.  High ocean heat content provides a hurricane with a constant source of fuel and makes it much harder to upwell cooler water from below which could weaken the storm.  This will help Milton to rapidly intensify and reach a higher peak intensity.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/

The Sunday 11am forecast from NHC brings it to nearly Category 4 intensity at landfall on Wednesday afternoon/evening.  There is too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall will be, but forecasts have been focused between Tampa and Fort Myers.  For most hazards, the exact landfall location doesn't matter, but for peak storm surge it does. There is a world of difference between being just north of the eye with offshore winds and just south of the eye with onshore winds.  Prepare assuming you're going to be on the bad side.

Preparations should be completed by the time tropical storm conditions could arrive, which for this storm looks like early Wednesday morning along much of the peninsula.

In addition to the devastating wind and storm surge impacts from a forecast like that, the entire peninsula is already experiencing widespread heavy rain today and that will continue until the hurricane passes through on Thursday morning. The map below shows the five-day outlook of flash flood risk.

It's still slightly too early get watches and warnings for Florida, but they could start being issued as early as Sunday evening, certainly by Monday morning. Be prepared to see storm surge warnings with ominous peak values on parts of the west coast of the peninsula.  Many of these areas are still cleaning up after Helene's storm surge, but this is very likely going to be worse.  Don't wait to leave if told to.

Elsewhere, Kirk and Leslie are still both hurricanes in the central Atlantic.  Leslie will weaken before reaching any land, but Kirk is still forecast to reach northern Europe on Wednesday.  As I brought up several times before, it will most likely not be technically "tropical" by then and it will weaken relative to what it is now, but impacts from wind and storm surge will still be felt.

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Kirk and Lesie are both hurricanes, Milton forms and threatens Florida

Kirk is still a major hurricane, presently at Category 3 intensity; Leslie was upgraded to the season's 8th hurricane on Friday night, and Tropical Storm Milton formed in the western Gulf of Mexico... it's very busy out there.

Very little has changed with the forecasts for Kirk and Leslie: Kirk is still expected to bring dangerous conditions to the British Isles and France on Wednesday.  Leslie is tracking right behind Kirk but has probably peaked in intensity and is forecast to weaken in the coming days, not posing a threat to land.

As I've mentioned for a while, swells generated by Kirk will spread across the Atlantic and reach the U.S. east coast beginning Sunday... definitely something to be alert for particularly near high tides when coastal flooding is more likely.

Moving on to Milton, this has been a long-festering system in the western Caribbean and Gulf, which I first wrote about on September 27.  It was upgraded to Tropical Depression 14 on Saturday morning and then Tropical Storm Milton just a few hours later.  This is the 13th named storm of the season, and is almost certainly going to become the 9th hurricane.  (Milton is a new name on this list, replacing Michael which was retired after the 2018 season.)

Milton is located in the far western Gulf, near the coast of Mexico, and is forecast to start moving east tomorrow.  Then, fairly low wind shear and exceptionally warm water should allow the storm to intensify very quickly before reaching the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, perhaps as a major hurricane as the forecast below shows.

Remember the track forecast cone only shows an area where the center of the storm might go with 2/3 probability (1/3 chance it tracks outside the cone)... and most importantly, the cone DOES NOT show impacts which are definitely not limited to the bounds of the cone.  It's too early for watches and warnings to be issued for Florida, but when they are, the wind-related ones will be shown on the cone map, and the storm surge ones will be shown on a separate map.

Furthermore, the Florida peninsula is thin.  When a hurricane makes landfall on one side, it doesn't have a long trip to pass over to the opposite coast, so the east coast of the Florida peninsula should also be preparing for a hurricane.

As has been the case all along, the threat of multiple days of heavy rain will create problems with widespread flooding across Florida.  The graphic below shows the current rainfall outlook for the next week.

Milton will almost certainly be the 5th hurricane landfall on the US Gulf coast this year (and the 3rd just in Florida).  From my searching, it looks like there were 5 US Gulf coast hurricane landfalls in 2020 and 2005 and there were 6 in 1886.  So this is way up there in terms of rarity of impacts.

 

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Hurricane Kirk strengthens, Tropical Storm Leslie strengthens, Gulf still unsettled

I intentionally mimicked the post's title from two days ago because almost nothing has changed since then.  Kirk has intensified more as expected, becoming the season's 3rd major hurricane on Thursday (it's not impossible that it clips Category 5 intensity today).  TD13 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Leslie on Wednesday night and it's still following in Kirk's footsteps. And, the mess in the Gulf of Mexico is still a mess with a very uncertain future.

On Friday morning, Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane located about 1000 miles northeast of the Windward Islands.

It will remain over the open ocean for the next 5-6 days and then will approach the British Isles and northern France where fairly major impacts are expected.  It may not technically be classified as a hurricane anymore by then, but it will still be a potent extratropical cyclone bringing destructive winds, heavy rain, and huge surf on Thursday-Friday of next week... similar to Lorenzo in October 2019.

As I pointed out on Wednesday morning, the wave field from Kirk will spread throughout the Atlantic, reaching the U.S. east coast on Sunday, resulting in elevated high tides and increased risks of coastal flooding and erosion.

Tropical Storm Leslie is also forecast to remain in the central Atlantic, and follow right behind Kirk, with a five-day lag.  It should reach hurricane intensity this weekend, and possibly major hurricane intensity early next week.

Then, there's the broad disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that we've been watching since at least last Thursday. There's not much to look at right now, but NHC is giving it a 40% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within a week, and the models are still pretty scattered about what to do with it.  

There's general agreement that it will begin to drift east toward the Florida peninsula, with rainfall beginning on Sunday and lasting for days.  It could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm by then, but wind will not be the primary hazard from this; it will be rain.  Several models are now showing a weak low pressure center over south or central Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly a low-end tropical storm.  The next name on the list is Milton.

The WPC's latest 7-day rainfall forecast is shown below, and it will evolve, but the entire peninsula should be paying attention to this in the coming days -- not just for the flooding potential, but the small chance that it intensifies more than models are currently showing.

For an update on the season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy, through today the 2024 season is at about 95% of average and climbing.  It will cross back above average this weekend.  In terms of storm counts, we've now had 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.  The average number by this date is 11, 5, and 2.

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