Bertha bringing unsettled weather to northern Gulf coast

Shortly after my previous post, Invest 91L was upgraded to Tropical Depression Two, then late Monday night, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha... the second named storm of the season.

It has barely moved since it formed but is gradually oozing westward just off the Gulf coast. That slow motion will continue over the next several days as it scrapes along the coastline.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for the coastal Florida panhandle over to western Louisiana.  On the cone graphic below, remember the cone does NOT show where impacts will be experienced, only the likely area where the center of the storm will track. [Cone refresher]

As you can see in the satellite animation at the top of the post, the storm is extremely sheared, with the surface center exposed and the thunderstorm activity displaced to the south.  That significant vertical wind shear will keep the storm from intensifying much.

The only relatively minor impact will be storm surge of 2-4 feet along Mississippi and eastern Louisiana... the rain should not be a big problem because the bulk of the messy part of the storm will remain over the Gulf of Mexico.  The stronger side of the storm in terms of wind is also more over the Gulf and less over land, but the graphic below shows the probability and most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds. Most places over land are under a 50% chance of seeing such winds.

Bertha is still a name from the original set of rotating lists... first used in 1984 and every six years since.  So this is its 8th time in use and will be certainly be around for a 9th time in 2032. [Storm naming and retiring refresher]

 

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