On Tuesday morning, an area of disturbed weather off the North Carolina coast was upgraded to TD2 based on buoy reports, visible satellite, and microwave satellite imagery. It has since drifted slowly northward along the coast, intensified slightly, as was further upgraded to TS Beryl. It's presently off the New Jersey coast (early Thursday afternoon), heading NNE, and gradually weakening in the face of ever-cooling sea surface temperatures. The latest intensity is 50kts and 1002mb.
An approaching trough to the west of Beryl will allow for baroclinically-enhanced rainfall to the north of the tropical system, including all of New England. A Tropical Storm Watch covers eastern Long Island, RI, and CT. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern MA. Between the approaching front and tropical storm, the northeast US can expect to be quite wet in the next 1-3 days, with the potential for several inches of rainfall from PA on up to ME.
Elsewhere, although the basin is typically quiescent in July, it is extraordinarily DEAD right now. There's an easterly wave nearing the Bahamas, but it's convectively inactive at the moment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
20 July 2006
13 June 2006
Alberto makes landfall...
At around 16Z today, Alberto came ashore near Dekle Beach, FL as a 45kt tropical storm. The MSLP was 996mb -- coastal locations to the east of the landfall point are experiencing 5-7' storm surges due to the shape and bathymetry of this portion of Florida (very easy to get big surges).
You can view a radar loop of the entire approach and landfall at
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/alberto06/Alberto_12-13Jun06.gif
Of note is the burst of deep convection near the circulation center as it comes inland, indicating enhanced frictional inflow. This is a fairly common, though ephemeral, last gasp of a tropical cyclone.
So far, 4 tornadoes have been reported in association with Alberto, and that threat remains high today in northern FL and eastern GA and SC. The other significant threat is flash flooding. It is forecast to zip off to the northeast as it merges with a mid-latitude trough, losing tropical characteristics as it does so.
Elsewhere, an easterly wave that exited the African coast on June 7 is now located near the Windward Islands. It's been moving west at 15kts and still disorganized, but will be watched! There is also a wave exiting Africa today, which had its root in the Ethiopian Highlands back on June 7. You can track waves' progress across the tropical Atlantic and Africa at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
You can view a radar loop of the entire approach and landfall at
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/alberto06/Alberto_12-13Jun06.gif
Of note is the burst of deep convection near the circulation center as it comes inland, indicating enhanced frictional inflow. This is a fairly common, though ephemeral, last gasp of a tropical cyclone.
So far, 4 tornadoes have been reported in association with Alberto, and that threat remains high today in northern FL and eastern GA and SC. The other significant threat is flash flooding. It is forecast to zip off to the northeast as it merges with a mid-latitude trough, losing tropical characteristics as it does so.
Elsewhere, an easterly wave that exited the African coast on June 7 is now located near the Windward Islands. It's been moving west at 15kts and still disorganized, but will be watched! There is also a wave exiting Africa today, which had its root in the Ethiopian Highlands back on June 7. You can track waves' progress across the tropical Atlantic and Africa at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/hovmoller/atlantic/
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
12 June 2006
Alberto heads for the Florida coast and strengthens...
Alberto has recently intensified quite notably, and now has sustained winds of 60kts and a central pressure of 997mb. It is forecast to briefly achieve minimal hurricane status prior to landfall. The forecast track is centered on Piney Point, west of Gainesville, but keep in mind forecast uncertainty... anyone from Tampa to Apalachicola should be prepared for severe tropical weather, which includes strong winds, flash floods, storm surge, and tornadoes.
The storm has slowed down a bit, and landfall isn't expected until Tuesday afternoon now. This slower motion increases intensification potential, HOWEVER, the oceanic heat content will be lower and vertical shear should be higher, so the net effect might be maintaining intensity or minimal strengthening.
At 15Z today, TS Alberto is located at 27.1N 85.9W and crawling NNE at 6kts. This puts it 220 miles southwest of Cedar Key, FL and about 36 hours from landfall.
Alberto's circulation is visible from Tampa's radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
and will be from Tallahassee's radar later today:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tlh&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of western Florida -- please visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144536.shtml?3day for the latest warnings. The biggest threats from this landfall will be storm surge and tornadoes in the spiral rainbands. Tornadoes have already been reported in western FL, and it's still 36 hours from landfall.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The storm has slowed down a bit, and landfall isn't expected until Tuesday afternoon now. This slower motion increases intensification potential, HOWEVER, the oceanic heat content will be lower and vertical shear should be higher, so the net effect might be maintaining intensity or minimal strengthening.
At 15Z today, TS Alberto is located at 27.1N 85.9W and crawling NNE at 6kts. This puts it 220 miles southwest of Cedar Key, FL and about 36 hours from landfall.
Alberto's circulation is visible from Tampa's radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
and will be from Tallahassee's radar later today:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tlh&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of western Florida -- please visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144536.shtml?3day for the latest warnings. The biggest threats from this landfall will be storm surge and tornadoes in the spiral rainbands. Tornadoes have already been reported in western FL, and it's still 36 hours from landfall.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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