20 July 2006

Beryl brushes US east coast...

On Tuesday morning, an area of disturbed weather off the North Carolina coast was upgraded to TD2 based on buoy reports, visible satellite, and microwave satellite imagery.  It has since drifted slowly northward along the coast, intensified slightly, as was further upgraded to TS Beryl.  It's presently off the New Jersey coast (early Thursday afternoon), heading NNE, and gradually weakening in the face of ever-cooling sea surface temperatures.  The latest intensity is 50kts and 1002mb.

An approaching trough to the west of Beryl will allow for baroclinically-enhanced rainfall to the north of the tropical system, including all of New England.  A Tropical Storm Watch covers eastern Long Island, RI, and CT.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern MA.  Between the approaching front and tropical storm, the northeast US can expect to be quite wet in the next 1-3 days, with the potential for several inches of rainfall from PA on up to ME.

Elsewhere, although the basin is typically quiescent in July, it is extraordinarily DEAD right now.  There's an easterly wave nearing the Bahamas, but it's convectively inactive at the moment.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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