Epsilon strengthens...

Today is the last day of the official hurricane season, but apparently 
nobody told Epsilon, which is still out there and going strong.

The satellite presentation today is beautiful; there's symmetric 
outflow, nice banding features, and an eye/eyewall forming.  This visual 
appearance plus some help from other remote sensing techniques gives an 
estimated intensity of 55kts and 993mb.  It could strengthen further 
before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone this weekend... 
possibly reaching hurricane status.  It's tracking W at 8kts, but should 
begin a northeasterly movement tonight.  As of 15Z, it's located at 
30.7N 53.9W, or about 10 degrees ESE of Bermuda.

As a quick season wrap-up, we've seen 26 storms reach Tropical Storm 
intensity or higher.  13 of those reached Hurricane status, and 7 of 
those reached Major Hurricane status (CAT3+).  The "average" numbers are 
10 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, and 2 Major Hurricanes.  Taking into 
account the numbers of storms and longevity of them compared to average, 
this season was over 2.5 times more active than an average season 
(257%).  In the Atlantic, we witnessed the highest number of named 
storms in recorded history (26), the lowest pressure in recorded history 
(882mb), and the costliest disasters in US history ($100 billion+).  
There are scores of other records too.  I'll eventually be sending out 
my full summary, but this is a good teaser!  Stay tuned!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Epsilon forms in central Atlantic...

As the 2005 tropical Atlantic season persists, Epsilon, the 26th named 
storm, formed this morning.  It's located about 14 degrees east of 
Bermuda in the north central part of the basin and its latest satellite-
estimated intensity is 45kts and 993mb.  It is heading W at 7kts.  SST 
under the system is about 25C and vertical wind shear is about 15kts 
from the southwest.

The forecast is for gradual strengthening (largely owing to decreasing 
shear), perhaps reaching hurricane status within the next couple of 
days, then transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.  It is expected to 
drift westward for the next 1-2 days, the zip off to the ENE as it gets 
caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies.

As an aside, Delta became an extratropical cyclone and hit the northwest 
coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as a very potent storm.  It was a 
named tropical storm for 5 days.

The NTC for 2005 is now 257%.  The season has not been one to break 
records, it has been one to shatter them.  As most of you know, I send 
out a season summary each year at the end of the season.  I still plan 
on doing this, but it probably won't come out on Dec 1.  Eventually...

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

An Old Record Tied

From Gary Padgett:

 

The formation of TS Epsilon in the Atlantic ties the

record for the most TS/HU forming post-30 September.

 

In 1887 there were 9 post-Sept TCs---six forming in

October (as in this year), and after a quiet month,

a little "mini season" in late Nov/early Dec, whereby

1 HU formed at the end of Nov, and another HU and

as TS formed during the first week of Dec, all in the

general region just north and northeast of the Greater

Antilles.   The two hurricanes eventually recurved

into the Atlantic, but the final one, a TS, formed

east of the Leewards and pursued an very unusual

WSW track across the entire Caribbean, eventually

moving into Costa Rica--the only TS on record to

make landfall in that country.

 

The second highest number of post-30 Sept TCs

was just 4 years ago, in 2001, with 7 named storms

forming in Oct and Nov.   If we can get a Zeta

during Dec, we can set yet another record for

the 2005 season.

 

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.