After its record-breaking landfall, Melissa heads for Bermuda

Satellite image of Hurricane Melissa at landfall in Jamaica, preliminarily tied for the strongest landfall on record in the Atlantic. October 28 at 1700 UTC.

Since my previous post on Monday when Melissa first reached Category 5 status, a lot happened on Tuesday (I was just too busy to write blog posts). It ended up maintaining that Category 5 intensity for 30 hours. This post will catch up from that and look ahead to an encounter with Bermuda later today.

Melissa made landfall on the southwest coast of Jamaica in the early afternoon hours of October 28 as an extremely powerful Category 5 hurricane -- by far the strongest landfalling hurricane in Jamaica's history. It then made a second landfall in eastern Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, and then again in the central Bahamas as a Category 1 hurricane.

Very few tropical cyclones ever reach Category 5 intensity (157+ mph) -- roughly 3% in the Atlantic when averaged over the past century. But Melissa went far beyond that on Tuesday the 28th.  It reached an exceptional 185 mph peak sustained wind speeds for several hours (at least preliminary... a post-season reanalysis will carefully scrutinize all available data and perhaps increase or decrease it). The central pressure at that time feel to 892 millibars, putting Melissa in the elite class of sub-900mb hurricanes -- there have only been seven of them known in the Atlantic now.  The two tables below put these values into historical context (verified for accuracy from Wikipedia):

But what is more incredible and terrifying is that Melissa also made landfall at that intensity and pressure! Preliminarily, it is now TIED with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane as the most intense landfalling storm ever in the Atlantic. Both the peak winds and the central pressure were the same (185 mph and 892 mb) so as of now there's no tiebreaker... this is definitely going to be a topic of extreme scrutiny and careful analysis during the post-season reanalysis period.  Here are the same tables as above but just for landfall:

Unlike 1935 when there were no radar or satellite images, I have a very long radar loop of Melissa's historic approach to Jamaica from their radar in Kingston available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/. The loop abruptly ends when either the radar itself was destroyed or communication was lost with it -- I don't know yet.

As of Thursday morning, Melissa is a re-intensifying Category 2 hurricane headed toward Bermuda. It could potentially have time to reach Category 3 status again before weakening and transitioning to an extratropical cyclone over the cold north-central Atlantic on Friday or Saturday. Its closest approach to Bermuda will be right around midnight tonight.

Despite the vertical wind shear increasing and the sea surface temperature decreasing, the storm is intensifying as it accelerates to the northeast. This can be accomplished through a mechanism called "baroclinic enhancement". Essentially, it's extracting energy from temperature gradients associated with a trough approaching from the west. 

One month remains in this exceptional hurricane season (THREE Category 5 hurricanes!). But as of the end of October, the season has had 13 named storms, including 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.  Climatologically by the end of October those counts are 13, 6, and 3. This ratio of major hurricanes to named storms is an interesting one... a kind of "quality-over-quantity" index. Here is what that percentage looks like over the past fifty years, and note the average is 21%. This season is certainly on the high end so far at 31%; the only higher percentages during this period were in 2017, 2004, 1999, and 1996.

Looking at the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that is now up to 113% of average for the date, and is already higher than what a full average season has. If I include NHC's intensity forecasts for Melissa out to the end of the month, the ACE will be at 115% of average, and that's what I'm showing below:

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Melissa becomes third Category 5 hurricane of the extraordinary 2025 season

For only the second time in recorded history, an Atlantic season has produced three Category 5 hurricanes... the previous year was 2005.  This puts 2025 in an elite class of hurricane seasons. It also means that nearly 7% of all known Category 5 hurricanes have occurred just in this year.

Early Monday morning, Melissa reached the rare Category 5 intensity -- and is still intensifying. The terrible aspect of this is that the center is only 100 miles from the southern coast of Jamaica, and will soon be headed toward the island.  No Category 5 hurricane has made a direct landfall on Jamaica in recorded history.  No one living there has ever experienced anything like what is about to happen.

Over the next three days, Melissa will slowly crawl across Jamaica, then begin accelerating as it crosses eastern Cuba and then the eastern Bahamas.  

Aside from being subjected to extremely destructive winds for a day+, coastal areas will experience extremely destructive long-duration storm surge of perhaps 9-13 feet, and the entire island and surrounding areas will experience extremely destructive long-duration flash flooding and mudslides, with some parts of Jamaica forecast to possibly get over 3 feet of rain.

[see SciAm's article from October 23: "Major Hurricane Melissa Will Drop Catastrophic Amounts of Rain on Jamaica"]

I have long updating radar loops available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/, though I fear we may lose the radar in Kingston, Jamaica as the eyewall approaches.

As I wrote in Friday's post, the ACE will indeed cross back above the "average" line today, and continue to climb in the coming days, probably boosting the season's total above 100% for the remainder of the season -- even if nothing else forms.

There is nothing of interest for new development in the foreseeable future, but the season is not over. Water temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm (anomalously warm for the date) and those exactly the areas we have to watch out for in this late part of the season.  The next name on the list is Nestor.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/

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Melissa likely to rapidly intensify this weekend

Almost nothing has changed since my previous post on Tuesday, but I'll provide the few updates there are regarding Melissa. Melissa is still a tropical storm, and is still in the central Caribbean and is barely moving.  The extremely warm and deep waters of the Caribbean near Jamaica will provide an endless fuel source with no opportunity to upwell cooler water. The vertical wind shear which has been inhibiting intensification so far is quickly decreasing. All signs point to rapid -- or "explosive" -- intensification very soon.

On Friday afternoon, Tropical Storm Melissa is intensifying and is forecast to become the season's fifth hurricane shortly.  It has barely moved in the past couple of days, and is only forecast to drift to the west toward Jamaica over the next 3-4 days. This will undoubtedly result in a significant disaster in Jamaica, but also further east in Haiti and perhaps even the Dominican Republic.  A Category 4 or 5 hurricane landfall is bad enough, but to have it last for a few days is much worse (remember Dorian over the western Bahamas in 2019?), and the rainfall and resulting flash floods and mudslides in mountainous areas will be devastating. I have long updating radar loops from Jamaica available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/.

The track forecast takes Melissa over Jamaica on Tuesday, then eastern Cuba and the Bahamas on Wednesday.  The multi-day stall will be definitively ended as a deep trough sweeps in across the eastern U.S. and picks the storm up and accelerates it off to the northeast. As of now, hurricane watches are in effect for Jamaica and Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula.

Assuming Melissa becomes a major hurricane (Category 3+), it would not be out of place at all historically. Below is a map showing tracks of the twenty major hurricanes that have been in the Caribbean Sea during October, going back to 1920.  The most recent were Delta (2020), Matthew (2016), and Sandy (2012).  There have been five Category 5 October Caribbean hurricanes: Matthew (2016), Wilma (2005), Mitch (1998), Hattie (1961), Unnamed (1924). They all made landfall eventually of course because it's virtually impossible to escape the Caribbean without hitting land.

The season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is at 90% of average for the date, but that's about to change quite a bit as Melissa intensifies. Based on NHC's current intensity forecast, 2025's ACE will cross above the average line on Monday.

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Melissa forms in Caribbean, forecast to intensify and stall over exceptionally warm water

The easterly wave that I mentioned in the posts on October 13 and again on October 15 finally made it into the Caribbean on Sunday and then was upgraded to Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning. It is located in the central Caribbean Sea, south of Hispaniola and just north of Venezuela.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season, and formed just four days ahead of the climatological date of 13th named storm formation.

The storm is forecast to gradually strengthen in the coming days, but also slow down to a crawl as it loses steering currents. And any time there is a forecast involving weak steering currents, there is an exceptional amount of uncertainty. Of course, the "cone of uncertainty" can't actually capture that because it's the same size for all storms all year long -- so on the map below, you need to mentally inflate the later days of the cone in this case. [see "Cone of Uncertainty" Update & Refresher]

If we take a look at some ensembles, we get a sense of the range of possibilities that helped to inform the NHC forecast shown above.  Some members track it across the Caribbean toward Central America, while others show a stall followed by a sharp turn to the north. Several others linger somewhere in between the two.  Any track forecast more than a few days out has very low confidence.  These ensemble members' tracks are shown out to one week (October 28)... American model on the left, European in the middle, and Google Deepmind on the right.

NHC is leaning slightly toward the north turn scenario, and has issued a tropical storm watch for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula. Certainly anyone in the western Caribbean should be paying close attention to this... and if the lingering lasts longer and it drifts further west then a turn to the north eventually happens, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Florida will need to be on alert -- but not yet.

Quite a number of the ensemble members indicate Melissa becoming a very strong hurricane in the coming week, while others keep it very weak -- again, huge uncertainty. One element that looks much more certain is flooding rainfall across the Greater Antilles, particularly Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.

The ocean heat content is exceptionally high for this time of year across much of the Caribbean, so even a stalled storm will not be able to upwell cooler water from below. The Caribbean is famously an endless fuel source for hurricanes, and these huge anomalies only boost that further.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/

If the forecast scenario of an "M" storm in October cruising into the Caribbean, stalling, and turning north as a major hurricane seems familiar to you, it should: this outcome would be remarkably similar to what we saw with Matthew in 2016:

Track of Hurricane Matthew (2016)

... and also Hurricane Hazel in October 1954:

Track of Hurricane Hazel (1954)

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Lorenzo dissipates, and eyes still on Caribbean early next week

After just three lackluster days, Tropical Storm Lorenzo dissipated on Wednesday afternoon in the central Atlantic... far from any land.

The African easterly wave I referenced in Monday's post is still showing up in the model guidance, though taking a bit longer to develop.  The ensembles generally suggest the wave reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday then perhaps a chance of intensification in the Caribbean.  

The three maps below show track forecasts of the potential next system from the European (top), American (middle), and Google Deepmind (bottom) ensembles... all of them end one week from now. The background shading is the sea surface temperature.  You can easily see varying degrees of bullishness on developing this wave, and within the Caribbean, the intensity is all over the place -- but the potential for a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean mid-week is there. The next name on the list is Melissa.

Now that there's a lull in the activity, I'll share some preliminary season-to-date materials.

First is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which I share frequently throughout the season.  That's at 91% of average for the date and will drop to 88% of average by next Wednesday if nothing else develops by then. The ACE was only above-average for a couple weeks at the end of August.

Next is a map of all 12 tropical cyclones so far this season, with their peak intensity, minimum pressure, and ACE contribution listed on the right. It is really striking how the storms have so far stayed out over the ocean for the most part. Of course, that may not hold true for the rest of the season.

Finally, some verification statistics for track and intensity forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center -- these are averaged over all twelve storms as well. The track errors have been right around average for all lead times, from 1 to 5 days. The 4-day (96-hour) track errors are just slightly above average.  Intensity errors, on the other hand, have been decidedly above average this season so far.

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Lorenzo forms in far eastern Atlantic

Tropical Storm Lorenzo, the twelfth named storm of the season, formed from a tropical wave on Monday morning.  As of Monday afternoon, it's centered about 1200 miles west of Cabo Verde.

As you can see in the satellite loop above, it is not very organized... and conditions will not improve too much for it. Unlike the last Lorenzo in 2019 that reached Category 5 intensity in the eastern Atlantic, it's unlikely this will reach minimal hurricane intensity as it turns north into the cooler north Atlantic by the weekend.

Also, since my previous post on Wednesday, Jerry dissipated on Saturday afternoon, and if you blinked, you missed Subtropical Storm Karen which was around for a day (Friday) just west of the Azores. The only interesting tidbit about Karen is that it was the northernmost named storm formation on record (44.4°N).

For the ACE update, that's at about 91% of average for the date.  The season has now had 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes... the average by now is 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.

Elsewhere, there is a signal in the long-range models showing potential development from a late-season African wave.  The wave is presently exiting the continent and the general consensus so far is for a track through the deep tropics and development this coming weekend. If this comes to fruition, it could reach the Lesser Antilles around Monday (20th) and then enter the Caribbean Sea. The next name on the list is Melissa.

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Tropical Storm Jerry to pass near Leeward Islands on Thursday night

Of the two areas of interest that I highlighted in my previous post last Friday, the one in the deep tropics formed and became Tropical Storm Jerry on Tuesday morning.  Jerry is the tenth named storm of the season.  The other area that was approaching Florida never did develop (and was not really expected to).

On Wednesday afternoon, Jerry is located about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is cruising to the west-northwest at 23 mph. From the satellite image above, strong vertical shear is evident: the low-level center of circulation is exposed and off to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops (the dark red blob in the middle of the image). That northwesterly shear will only relax slightly in 1-3 days which is Jerry's opportunity to reach hurricane intensity.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northern Leewards, where tropical storm conditions could arrive on Thursday afternoon and then persist into the night as it makes its closest approach.

After that encounter, it should turn toward the north on Friday when it's forecast to intensify to the season's fifth hurricane. This will put Bermuda on alert... the island that just took a direct hit from Category 2 Hurricane Imelda last Wednesday.

If Jerry does indeed take this track, it would follow the large majority of previous storms this season -- I shared a track map of the season so far in Friday's post. It seems there's a primary reason for that. On the map below, I'm showing the surface pressure anomaly averaged over the August 1 - October 6 time period, and what really stands out is the Azores High has been stronger than normal, but also more condensed in the east-west direction. We see that area of below-average pressures between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast, and that has allowed long-track storms to turn north well before reaching the U.S. More commonly, the Azores High's influence extends further west toward Bermuda.

For some name history, Jerry is still an original name from the first set of six rotating lists... it first appeared on a list in 1983, so this would be its 8th incarnation, but the hypoactive 1983 season only reached the "D" name.  The tracks of the previous seven Jerrys are shown below just for reference. Jerry 2025's track will probably end up looking A LOT like Jerry 2019.

Elsewhere across the basin, things look quiet for the next several days, but when the time comes, the next name on the list is Karen (which is also an original name from the 1983 list).

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Two areas of interest to watch in first week of October

One area of interest is over the Bahamas and drifting west toward Florida, but has a low probability of formation... the second just exited the African coast and has a medium (50%) chance of formation in the coming week.

I will start with discussing the tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are not too favorable for development in the next few days, but are expected to become more favorable toward the middle of next week as it tracks toward the west-northwest.

Among the American and European model ensembles, there is strong agreement that this will develop and probably reach hurricane intensity.  Both ensembles also show the potential for a track into the Lesser Antilles around next Friday (the track maps below both end on Friday the 10th). Certainly something to watch very closely.  The next name on the list is Jerry.

The disturbance near Florida could be a bigger trouble-maker than it would appear. Although it has a very low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, it has a very high chance of exaggerating flooding concerns -- not only from days of heavy rain, but for coastal areas, it's coming at a time when tides will also be exceptionally high for at least a week due to a perigean full moon. The image below shows the rainfall forecast over the coming week, in inches.  Coastal/tidal flooding is a near-certainty in the region in the next 10+ days, so any rainfall on top of that would quickly make matters worse (especially if it occurs near high tides).

Also, to wrap up what happened with Humberto and Imelda over the past few days, there were not too many surprises; the outcome largely followed what I wrote in my previous post on Monday.  Humberto and Imelda did interact with each other, and Imelda's track got tugged toward Humberto, sparing the southeast U.S. from what would have been a significant flooding event. However, in exchange, it got flung in the direction of Bermuda where it passed directly over the island as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday night (radar loops).

Here's a graphic I shared on Bluesky (full thread here) on Wednesday that illustrates the interaction between the two storms in a process commonly called the Fujiwhara Effect.

Now that there is a break in the activity, here's a look at the first nine storms of the season. Each storm's peak intensity, minimum pressure, and total ACE is listed on the right. So far this season, the Caribbean has been devoid of activity, and the Gulf of Mexico *almost* has been too (just short-lived Tropical Storm Barry in the Bay of Campeche. That is likely to change in October when those areas typically become more of the focus for activity.

And as far as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) goes, that is now close to the climatological value for the date (93%). As of today, 2025 has had more ACE accrued than 2024 did by now (and 2022, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009, etc). Historically, roughly 20% of a season's activity still lies ahead.

This season's activity has been quite exceptional. Of the four hurricanes, three of them were Category 4 and 5, and two of them were Category 5.  How rare is it to have TWO Category 5s in a season? In the previous century, it's happened just eight times. And 2025 isn't over yet... 

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