Francine will be third hurricane landfall on the US Gulf coast this year

Shortly after my post on Monday, Francine did indeed form, and then was upgraded to the season's fourth hurricane on Tuesday night.  It is nearing Category 2 hurricane intensity, and will make landfall in Louisiana tonight.  Elsewhere, a strong easterly wave out near Cabo Verde could become Gordon by this weekend.

The NHC's experimental version of the "cone of uncertainty" graphic shows inland wind-related watches and warnings, removes the border around the cone, and eliminates the dotted treatment of the Day 4 & 5 part of the forecast... all-around some really nice improvements.

Of course, in addition to the wind-related watches and warnings, there are storm surge watches and warnings too, and as of the Wednesday morning forecast, a peak storm surge of 5-10 feet is possible from Intracoastal City over to Port Fourchon.  Tide schedules vary within this region, but water levels will be maximized if the peak storm surge arrives at or near high tide.

As mentioned in the title of the post, Francine will be the third hurricane to hit the northern Gulf coast already this year (Beryl and Debby were the others).  That's a lot... though there were five in 1886, four in 2020, 2005, and 1985... and three in 1934, 1915, 1888, and 1860.  So it's not unprecedented, but it's unusual and certainly not welcome! Oh, and the season's not over yet.

Once Francine makes landfall it will continue to move inland and weaken, dumping some hefty rain totals along the southern Mississippi Valley before rather quickly dissipating.  You can find the rainfall forecast maps (and other hazards) on NHC's website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents

NHC has four other areas of interest highlighted for potential development in the coming week, but the only one I'll discuss here is the one presently near Cabo Verde... the others have very low probabilities of becoming tropical cyclones.

That wave, tagged as Invest 93L, exited the African coast on Monday and has a lot of model support for development very soon.  Persistent thunderstorm activity is located in a relatively small portion of the broad circulation, and it appears very close to becoming the season's 7th tropical cyclone.

As of now, global model ensembles indicate a west-northwest track for the next 5-6 days followed by a turn to the north somewhere near 50°W longitude (well before the Lesser Antilles).  They also suggest it will struggle to intensify too much until that north turn, after which it could become the season's 5th hurricane. At any rate, as of right now, it does not appear that future-Gordon will be a threat to land.

Catching up on the progress of the season's activity as measured by ACE, even with Hurricane Francine out there, 2024 is struggling to keep up with climatology... right at 98% of average for September 11.  Of course, there's still half of hurricane season ahead of us, and all indicators continue to point to it being above-average.

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