Two disturbances to watch in the coming days

As a brief follow-up since my previous post on Monday, the season's first named storm, Alberto, did indeed form in the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, then drifted westward into Mexico... making landfall near Tampico as a tropical storm.

Today, there are two more systems of interest, one headed for Florida/Georgia and one expected to form in the same area and fashion as Alberto did.  The one headed toward Florida is tagged as Invest 92L.  Fortunately, neither one is expected to intensify much, but another round of heavy rainfall will be a huge concern with the one following in Alberto's footsteps.

A radar animation of Invest 92L from the Jacksonville NWS radar is shown below, spanning the morning hours from 4am-9am.

This disturbance is getting more organized by the hour, but is rapidly running out of time before it's over land.  However, model guidance shows that it will get picked up by an approaching trough and *could* be back over the ocean (including the warm Gulf Stream) early next week where it has an even better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.  That is, if there's anything left of it after 2-3 days over land.

Shifting our attention 1000 miles to the southwest, another disturbance is brewing over the Yucatan peninsula and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next seven days.  As I mentioned in the beginning, the evolution and track of this system will very closely mimic what we just saw with Alberto.

The next couple of names on the list are Beryl and Chris. Tidbit: the first five names on this year's list are all original from the 1982 list when they were first used (there are six lists of names that get reused).  So, Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto were all used in 1982, 1988, 1994, ..., and 2024.  This year, we have two new names on the list: Francine and Milton.  They replace Florence and Michael which were retired after the 2018 season. 

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