06 September 2021

Larry still a major hurricane, also watching Gulf coast

The easterly wave that would become Larry left the African coast on August 30th.  It quickly became the season's 12th named storm on September 1st, then the season's 5th hurricane on September 2nd, and the season's 3rd major hurricane on September 4th.  All of those dates are 1-2 months ahead of where an average season would be, keeping the 2021 season activity well ahead of average too.

Larry has been a large Category 3 hurricane since Saturday morning, and it's expected to remain that way for another 3 days or so.  It's also expected to remain far from land, with the exception of a brush with Bermuda on Thursday and Newfoundland on Saturday. These are the hurricanes we all can enjoy: huge beautiful storms far from creating any havoc on land.

However, even these distant long-lived powerful hurricanes do have a noticeable impact on the U.S. east coast.  This comes in the form of large swells and wave energy.  These elevated water levels will affect the U.S. east coast from Wednesday through the weekend:

Moving on from Larry, we've been keeping an eye on a disturbance for the past week, since it was just off the coast of Colombia.  It has since passed over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan peninsula and is now centered in the Bay of Campeche... tagged as Invest 91L.  

Although environmental conditions aren't too favorable for its development, there is a chance of it becoming the next tropical cyclone later in the week as it approaches the northeast Gulf coast or after crossing the Florida peninsula.  If it happens to reach tropical storm status, the next name on the list is Mindy.  The average date of the 13th named storm formation is October 25th.

Overall, the 2021 hurricane season is at about 148% of the average ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the date, and recent seasons that were more active by now include 2017, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, etc.  It's well ahead of the 2020 season.

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