03 June 2020

Cristobal makes its first landfall in Mexico

Surface winds (white streamlines) and precipitable water (shaded background) from Wednesday morning as Cristobal made landfall in Mexico. (earth.nullschool.net)

Less than one day after becoming the earliest third named storm on record, Cristobal made landfall near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico as a tropical storm with 60mph peak sustained winds. The rainfall has been the biggest problem in the region, with at least 20 people already killed by this storm.

Cristobal is expected to weaken now that the center is over land, but by late this week it is forecast to start moving north again and back into the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow it re-intensify and pose a threat to the northern Gulf coast late this weekend.

Track and intensity forecasts from the European model and its ensemble. The numbers along the way are hours from Tuesday evening. (UAlbany)

As of now, it does not appear likely that this will be a big wind or storm surge threat, but heavy rain is on its way to a large area later this weekend into early next week. In the outside chance that this does intensify more though, stay tuned to NHC for updates every day.

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