All environmental indicators suggest that Dorian will strengthen substantially in the next few days before reaching land. While there's a small probability that the storm turns north before reaching the southeast U.S. coast, by far the most probable outcome is a landfall along the Florida peninsula. The European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models and their ensembles continue to indicate a spread spanning all of Florida and up into the Carolinas and some are even offshore. In other words: be prepared. The most probable area as of now is central Florida though.
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is still the most intense landfalling hurricane not just in Florida, but in the entire US).
Based on this, we could start seeing tropical storm and hurricane watches be issued for Florida tonight or Friday morning. You should always consult the NHC website for the most current information.
Suppose Dorian is tracking due west when it hits the Florida peninsula. Not only is there the first impact along the east coast, but shortly after, the west coast of Florida will also get a hurricane, complete with rain, wind, and storm surge. The Florida peninsula is flat and narrow and is barely an obstacle for hurricanes. Then, you have a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico which will inevitably hit somewhere else.
A hurricane hazard to never overlook is rain... and Dorian is no exception. Although this depends a bit on the exact track, heavy flooding rain occurs for hundreds of miles away from the storm center. This map shows the forecast rainfalls over the coming week.
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Thank you, Brian!
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