28 May 2016

TD2 to hit South Carolina on Sunday morning

On Friday afternoon, the area of interest was upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 based on aircraft reconnaissance data.  As of 3pm on Saturday, it is still a depression, but is right on the threshold of becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie (it's a difference of sustained winds increasing from 35mph to 40mph).

The center of the storm is 150 miles southeast of Charleston and heavy rain is already onshore.

It is moving toward the northwest at 13mph, and that motion will bring the center to the coastline on Sunday morning, though it won't be a very dramatic landfall.  The biggest impact will be rain, and that is already occurring; however, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire South Carolina coast.

It's passing over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, but as you can see from the satellite image at the top, it is strongly sheared which is limiting intensification.  That could change somewhat in the 18 hours between this writing and when it reaches the coastline.  The strongest winds in Charleston will be from about midnight through noon on Sunday and could gust to 45-50mph.

I have a long updating radar loop from Charleston available at http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/bonnie16/Bonnie_28-30May16_CLX.gif
(it has Bonnie in the filename, but it is not named yet)

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