19 June 2012

Two areas of interest in western Atlantic

There are a couple of areas of potential development: one is south of Nova Scotia and no threat to land, and the other is still a nebulous area of disturbed weather over Cuba and southern Florida.

First, the northern system.  This has been in the picture for several days now, but has gradually gotten better organized.  It has a chance of becoming a subtropical storm in the near future, but by Thursday, it will be too far into the north-central Atlantic TC graveyard.  It's presently about 400 miles southeast of Nova Scotia and forecast to head northeast.  It's presently over 23C water, and in 20kts of vertical shear, so while there is a possibility of this being classified as a named subtropical system, those chances are dwindling with time.

The southern system is an amorphous blob associated with a surface trough and a 1009mb Low over the western Caribbean. 

 The whole area is embedded in a wave of high TPW (total precipitable water), which is often a necessary condition for TC formation, and if nothing else, a key ingredient in heavy rainfall potential.  The loop below shows the westward movement of that higher TPW:

While this system is very disorganized now, it will still bring heavy rain to Cuba and southern Florida (perhaps up to 6"), and most likely drift NW toward Mexico or Texas over the next several days.  You can keep an eye on the rainfall over southern FL via Key West's radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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