20 June 2012

Chris forms, Caribbean disturbance lingering

Shortly after my update yesterday, the area of interest that I mentioned southeast of Nova Scotia was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chris, the 3rd named storm of the season.  Climatologically, we don't see the 3rd named storm until August 13, so this is most definitely an active start to the season!
As of 09Z today (5am EDT), the intensity was 40kts and 1005mb, and it was located about 600 miles south of Newfoundland... no threat to land.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather over Cuba and southern Florida continues to fester and spread copious rain over a large region. 
You can view a short radar loop from a mosaic of radars in Cuba at http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/NacComp200Km.gif

Whether or not this blob can organize into a TC is not a big factor in how much rain it will produce... huge rainfall totals will be observed over Cuba and southern Florida, and the the graphic below from HPC shows the forecast rainfall amounts over the next 5 days (not counting what has already fallen):

The lowest surface pressures associated with this system are around 1009mb now, and computer models are not very bullish when it comes to developing it.  Over the next several days, it should linger, with a slow drift to the northwest.  By the weekend, perhaps models will get a grip on what its next move will be.  But since it will be in the Gulf, coastal residents in the Gulf should keep an eye on it... just in case!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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