24 October 2011

Rina forms in western Caribbean

The disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua that I mentioned in Friday's update has gotten much better organized... and on Sunday at 21Z was upgraded to TD18, then six hours later, to TS Rina.  This is the 17th named storm of the season; climatologically by this date we have had just ten named storms.

At 15Z today, Tropical Storm Rina's intensity is 40kts, with a 1001mb central pressure... and an appearance that suggests some hefty intensification can be expected.  It's currently located north of the eastern tip of Honduras, and the forecast track calls for a very slow crawl toward the northern tip of the Yucatan peninsula.  The majority of models bring this system up to hurricane intensity by Wednesday.

This time of year, this location, and this track forecast are very similar to Wilma (2005)... but so far, we aren't dealing with a Category 5 hurricane.  At Rina's position, Wilma was a Category 5 storm six years and five days ago.  This map below is for Wilma... NOT Rina:

There's also a disturbance in the far eastern Caribbean that is worth keeping an eye on...

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