01 June 2011

First day of hurricane season comes with a couple of disturbances

Today is the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season.  To help usher it in, there are two areas of disturbed weather to keep an eye on.

The first, a very compact system labeled AL93, has been tracking toward the southwest over the past day and has just made "landfall" near Daytona Beach FL as a 1013mb Low.  It is bringing heavy rain, hail, and/or gusty winds to much of the central FL peninsula, and will soon enter the northeast Gulf of Mexico.  Though unlikely, there is a chance that this will re-develop over the Gulf and head generally westward as a Tropical Storm.  I won't say any more about that unless it actually survives the Florida transit.

The second area of disturbed weather is in the central Caribbean, north of Colombia/Panama centered near 12N 77W.  It is nearly stationary, and although environmental conditions are unfavorable now, they could improve in 2-3 days, allowing this to develop and crawl NW-N toward the Yucatan-Cuba area.

The first couple of names on this year's roster are Arlene and Bret.  Since the blog format is new this season, I'm sending the posts to the old mailing list as well.

I'd also like to point out that the CSU's June 1 Seasonal Forecast is available at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2011/june2011/jun2011.pdf ... the short version is that 2011 should be an active season, though not as active as the historic 2010 season.  The forecast calls for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, or about 75% higher than average.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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