Bay of Campeche disturbance getting organized

Over the past week or so, there has been a persistent area of convection and depressed surface pressures over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche.  This disturbance is currently centered near 21.0N 93.4W, tracking WNW at 6kts, and has a 1006mb central pressure.  The circulation is broad and ill-defined, but has been improving gradually.

This system is expected to continue organizing as the sea surface temperatures remain at about 28.5C and the vertical shear decreases from the current 15kts to around 7kts by tomorrow evening.  Landfall will occur sometime Wednesday night into early Thursday morning near Tampico MX, and by far, the most significant threat will be the heavy rainfall.  The graphic below shows the forecast precipitation totals starting today and running through Sunday:

Should this get named, the first name this season is Arlene.  Climatologically, the first named storm in the Atlantic forms on July 9, so this would be just slightly ahead of an average season.

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