During the last three days since my last update, Lisa and Matthew fizzled out (Lisa drifted north over cold water in the far eastern Atlantic and Matthew dumped ridiculous amounts of rain over much of central America and dissipated inland), and a new large area of disturbed weather has been brewing over the western Caribbean... perhaps the one that many of the global models hinted at over a week ago.
That disturbance was upgraded to TD16 today at 15Z based on satellite and surface observations... and a recon aircraft just took off for a flight into the system as I type this. The intensity estimate is 30kts and 1001mb; it's located about 180 miles S of Havana and tracking NNE at 9kts. It is forecast to slowly intensify and head NNE, bringing it over Cuba then into south Florida most likely as a TS. There are Tropical Storm Warnings for central Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Florida peninsula from Key West to West Palm Beach. The next name on the list is Nicole.
For a little bit of hurricane history, on this day 12 years ago, large and tenacious Hurricane George made landfall near Biloxi, MS as a CAT2 storm: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/Hurricane_Georges_28_sept_1998_2043Z.jpg
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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