11 September 2010

Igor heading west, still a tropical storm...

Tropical Storm Igor has gone through a few oscillations between sparse and healthy convection, but has maintained a vigorous low-level circulation.  As of this writing, the deep convection is located over the center and is fairly symmetric.  It appears to be taking advantage of an improving environment and is on its way to becoming the season's 4th hurricane.  It's located about 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands and heading W at 17kts.  At 15Z, the intensity was estimated at 60kts and 995mb.  The long-range forecast is for Igor to continue heading west, then make a gradual WNW bend by the middle of next week as it passes north of the Leeward Islands.

Two other disturbances are worth watching in the coming days: one in the far eastern Caribbean and one right on the African coast.  Both of them are likely to become named storms in the coming days, and the next names are Julia and Karl.  The easterly wave that is exiting the African coast is incredibly well-developed and could even be a numbered/named system before reaching the Cape Verde islands!

Also of note: today is the 50-year anniversary of Hurricane Donna's landfall on Florida (Category 4), and Hurricane Iniki's landfall on Hawaii (Category 4).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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