On Sunday afternoon, TD5 formed in the north central Gulf of Mexico. It is currently just south of New Orleans and heading W at 7kts... near 28.2N 90.6W. Intensity is 40kts and 1002mb. It's battling some northerly wind shear and ambient dry air, which should both act to at least slow intensification. But SSTs are quite warm under its future track.
Latest SST analysis:
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/sectors/sst/gulf0.png
Latest vertical shear analysis:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shrZ.GIF
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the northern half of the TX coast and the western half of the LA coast. Edouard is not forecast to be a hurricane at landfall, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. It is heading generally westward toward Houston, and should make landfall early Tuesday morning.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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