15 October 2005

TD24 forms in the western Caribbean...

This is far from a sudden development, and in fact, this area has been suspect for almost 10 days now as a long draping tail of clouds and vorticity have persisted from near Nova Scotia down to the western Caribbean in association with a monster mid-latitude upper-Low.  As sometimes happens, the trailing end can wrap up into a discreet vortex, and that's exactly what happened!  So, after much festering, we finally have the 24th Tropical Depression of the season.

At 21Z today, the first advisory was written on TD24 and NHC placed it at 17.6N 78.8W with a motion of W at 2kts.  Intensity is a modest 25kts and 1004mb.  The SSTs under it are 28.5-29C and there's already a well-established anticyclone over it, minimizing wind shear and providing ample exhaust outlets.

Computer models have favored genesis for a while now, and now that it has occurred, they like it even better, bringing it up to a hurricane and even a major hurricane in a few days.  As suggested before, conditions are very favorable for this to happen.  The track will be SLOW, and primarily to the west.  Anyone from Belize to western Cuba should be watching this VERY closely.

If this gets named, its will be Wilma, and we will tie 1933 with the highest number of named storms (21).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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