At 03Z today, the final advisory was written on Mindy as she completed the extratropical transition and is now fully absorbed by a trough. She never reached hurricane strength, but did accumulate 2.0 Named Storm Days. TD19 continues to organize east of the Lesser Antilles. This morning's infrared satellite imagery shows a very cold CDO, with cloud tops as cold as -85C at times. The low-level center, although somewhat challenging to find, is approximately under the CDO. As of 15Z, TD19 was at 10.8N 41.4W and tracking WNW at 8kts. Intensity is estimated to be 30kts and 1006mb. This will likely be upgraded to TS Nicholas at the 21Z advisory today, and could reach hurricane strength during the weekend. The track forecast recurves the storm by about 47W, sneaking north through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, if the ridge does not break down according to the models, the track will be forced more westerly. Just something to keep an eye on. Elsewhere, there is an area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean Sea, right by Honduras and Nicaragua. Conditions are favorable for development, but proximity to land could hinder it. If it continues a westward drift, it stands a better chance of developing in the EastPac.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
No comments:
Post a Comment