06 October 2003

Kate back to CAT1 hurricane, Larry made landfall...

Since Friday morning (time of the last update), Kate reached a peak
intensity of 110kts and 952mb on Saturday afternoon, just shy of CAT4
status.  She accumulated 1.5 Intense Hurricane Days, and so far has 8.5
Named Storm Days and 5.25 Hurricane Days.  The track has not been very
deviant from the forecast... she has made the expected northward bend as
she recurves in response to a midlatitude trough.  As of 15Z today,
Hurricane Kate was at 36.1N 55.2W and tracking NNE at 19kts.  Current
intensity is 75kts and 979mb.  The future is not very surprising; she
will gradually lose tropical characteristics, weaken, and get whisked
northeastward by the trough, probably giving Iceland a bit of a show by

Tropical Storm Larry never reached hurricane strength, and never found a
real steering flow.  He drifted VERY slowly and erratically south into
Mexico, making landfall around 03Z on 10/5.  Advisories on Larry have
ceased, as his remnants continue to drift into the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located at about 12N 45W and could slowly
organize over the next couple days, as conditions appear favorable. 
There is already a broad area of cyclonic vorticity, divergence aloft,
and it's heading into an area of very high oceanic heat content (not
only warm water, but deep warm water).  The next number/name on deck is

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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