29 June 2003

Tropical Storm Bill forms in the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of persistent deep convection in the central Gulf of Mexico finally got
better organized and achieved a closed circulation at 15Z today.  As of 21Z, TS
Bill was located at 24.8N 91.1W and heading NNW at 11kts.  Maximum sustained
winds are 40kts and it has a 1010mb MSLP.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for all of the MS and LA coasts, and the extreme eastern TX coast.  The
greatest threat will be flash flooding as the storm moves ashore.

Conditions are favorable for futher intensification... Bill is over 29C water
and embedded in 15kts of southerly shear.  The CDO has maintained -70C cloud
tops nearly all day, but of course the outflow aloft is restricted on the south
side.  It is forecast to reach 55kts at landfall on Monday afternoon.  The exact
landfall location isn't critical because there's not an intense eyewall, but it
looks like central LA will see the circulation center.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment