09 June 2003

Deep tropics looking interesting...

Last Friday afternoon, a large cluster of thunderstorms moved off the
African coast at about 6N.  During the weekend, the cluster got better
organized and now has a 1010mb Low associated with it, which is now
located at 7N 33W and tracking W at 20kts.  It's embedded in light
southeasterly shear, and the SSTs are marginal for intensification (if
it can stay south of 10N until it gets to about 50W, SSTs will remain
marginally favorable, otherwise, they get too cool).

In the satellite imagery, one can clearly see a low-level circulation,
an anticyclone aloft, and sustained cloud tops colder than -70C (these
are all healthy for a developing storm).

It's climatologically unfavorable to have a "Cape Verde" storm develop
this early, but certainly not impossible.  This name refers to the Cape
Verde Islands at about 15N 25W, or a few hundred kilometers west of the
African coast.

It's something worth monitoring, and should it reach Tropical Storm
strength, it's name will be Bill.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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