Disturbance becomes TD2, and still organizing...

At 03Z today, the tropical disturbance I had been mentioning in the deep
tropics was upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 based on satellite
intensity estimates.  Although still fairly disorganized, the
persistence of the circulation and convection is impressive for this
time of year at that location.  Quoting NHC's bulletin, "THIS IS THE
THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IN JUNE SINCE 1967".

As of 09Z, TD2 was located at 9.9N 43.3W and tracking W at 17kts.  The
forecast is first for a slight intensification, marginally reaching
Tropical Storm status, then for increasing shear and gradual weakening
as it drifts WNW toward the northern Lesser Antilles.  It's in 10kts of
westerly vertical wind shear, and over 25-26C SSTs.  As it moves
westward, the SSTs will warm into the 26-27C range.  Recall that if TD2
gets named, it will be Bill.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.