At 03Z today, the tropical disturbance I had been mentioning in the deep tropics was upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 based on satellite intensity estimates. Although still fairly disorganized, the persistence of the circulation and convection is impressive for this time of year at that location. Quoting NHC's bulletin, "THIS IS THE THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IN JUNE SINCE 1967". As of 09Z, TD2 was located at 9.9N 43.3W and tracking W at 17kts. The forecast is first for a slight intensification, marginally reaching Tropical Storm status, then for increasing shear and gradual weakening as it drifts WNW toward the northern Lesser Antilles. It's in 10kts of westerly vertical wind shear, and over 25-26C SSTs. As it moves westward, the SSTs will warm into the 26-27C range. Recall that if TD2 gets named, it will be Bill.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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