10 October 2002

Kyle still out there...

Since the last update on Monday, Kyle had experienced yet another bout
with high vertical shear.  It stripped away all convection leaving just
a well-defined low-level vortex.  But alas, since we'd expect nothing
less from him, convection re-fired in Kyle on Wednesday evening.  Well,
James Franklin at NHC put it best in the 03Z duscussion today:
"OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE".  Julian Heming from
the UK Met Office then commented that "I suppose we should be thankful
it is not heading for Massachusetts, to save us further quotations from
the Brothers Gibb!"  Nothing wrong with a little humor in the
forecasting business.  For those keeping track, Kyle's now the 6th
longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin since records
began.  He's been around for 19.75 days, 14.75 of which were Named Storm
days (35kts+).

At 15Z today, TD Kyle was at 28.5N 78.6W (about 2.5 degrees east of Cape
Canaveral) and tracking W at 10kts.  Intensity is 25kts and 1010mb...
quite weak, but convection is becoming better organized, albeit slowly. 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northern half of eastern FL
and parts of the southern GA coast.  He's expected to pass VERY close
the FL/GA border Friday morning as a 30kt TD, then head NE along the
coastline and over SC, NC, VA, if he's even trackable by that point.

For lack of something else to talk about, a fairly large area of
disturbed weather has exited the African coast at about 11N 15W.  Shear
is presently less than 10kts, and there's weak vorticity associated with
it, but such favorable conditions should not persist long enough to
allow cyclogenesis to occur.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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