11 October 2002

Kyle becomes a TS, for the 4th time; two other areas are becoming interesting.

Yesterday at roughly 22Z, a HUGE explosion of convection occurred
directly over Kyle's low-level center, leading to a large and cold CDO
just four hours later.  This burst allowed him to concentrate enough
vorticity to spin the storm back up to a Tropical Storm by 09Z this
morning.  Still under a more ragged -70C CDO, the storm has not gotten
convectively organized, as determined from an SSM/I microwave satellite
pass a few hours ago.  For anyone interested, the Wilmington, NC (KLTX)
radar shows the passing of the storm as he makes landfall not far from

At 15Z today, Kyle was located at 32.4N 80.1W (20 miles SW of
Charleston, SC) and tracking NE at 13kts.  Intensity is 40kts and
1008mb.  He is expected to make landfall on Charleston, SC as a 40kt TS
at about noon Eastern time and remain a minimal Tropical Storm for the
next three days, and will therefore keep adding to his total of 15 Named
Storm Days and nearly 21 days of existence.  A Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect for all of the SC and NC coasts, a Tornado Watch is in effect
for northern SC and most of eastern NC, Flash Flood Warnings are in
effect for parts of SC, NC, and VA.  

The tropical wave off of Africa's coast I mentioned in yesterday's
update has become better organized. Presently at about 11N 25W (just
south of the Cape Verdes), it's tracking west, and vertical shear is
decreasing as an upper-level anticyclone develops over it.  There is
healthy outflow and the low-level vorticity is becoming more
centralized.  The models that do develop this system recurve it by 40W
or so, so it's seemingly no threat to land.

Now, here's something that strict observationalists should bypass... the
models are beginning to agree on a solution of a rather impressive
tropical cyclone developing in the southwest Caribbean by Sunday, and
taking it northward into western Cuba then perhaps the FL peninsula
(poor folks in western Cuba have earned a multi-year vacation from
landfalls after this season).  There is already a large pool of
disorganized vorticity and disturbed weather in extreme southern Bay of
Campeche.  This needs to be watched very closely, as this scenario is
climatologically favored for this time of the season (recall Mitch '98
and Michelle '01?  Maybe Marco '02 will follow in their footsteps??).

FYI, the next numbers/names on deck are 14,15/Marco,Nana... just in case
we should need them in the coming days.  If the past several years are
any help in forecasting activity, the season won't shut down until the
very end.  The past 4 years we've reached the N (11/24-12/1), L
(11/13-11/21), N (10/19-10/22), and O (11/24-12/4) storms.  So far we're
at L this season and it's only 10/11!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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