07 August 2002

Bertha still worth keeping an eye on, Cristobal forms from TD3.

Although advisories ceased on Bertha as of Monday morning, she has
drifted back over warm Gulf waters and is still moving very slowly. 
This COULD give her the opportunity to redevelop.  At 1630Z, I placed
the low-level center at 29.3N 93.0W based on visible imagery... moving
WSW at not much more than a drift.  Although the bulk of convection
associated with the remnants of Bertha is well to the south and
southwest of the center, new blowups are occuring very close to the
center, and if maintained, could lead to redevelopment.  If the future
track of ex-Bertha should become important, it seems to me that she'd
continue moving slowly SSW or SW toward Texas.

At 2330Z Tuesday, TD3 was upgraded to TS Cristobal based on an aircraft
recon flight into the storm.  The lastest advisory (15Z) places
Cristobal at 29.3N 76.0W and nearly stationary.  Winds are 40kts and
MSLP is 999mb.  The official NHC forecast is for a trough to pick him up
and move him rapidly ENE then NE, while turning him extratropical. 
However, there are models that allow him remain tropical and intensify
(even to a major hurricane).  Although unlikely, it's worth watching
for.  Unless the trough passes him by and easterly trades take control
again, he will not impact the US mainland.

Elsewhere in the basin, pressures are high, shear is high, and
convection is hard to come by.  For those who are interested, CSU's
Seasonal Forecast Team (led by Bill Gray) just today reduced the
expectations for the season to 9 Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, and 1 Major
Hurricane.  Recall that as of now, we're at 3/0/0.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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