09 August 2002

Bertha makes landfall, Cristobal absorbed into trough.

Bertha never made it to TS strength... the burst in convection yesterday
morning was short-lived and the highlight of her reincarnation.  Since
then, convection was minimal and the circulation center got harder and
harder to find.  She made landfall Friday morning shortly after 4am CDT
on Padre Island, Texas (within a few miles of where Bret hit on 8/22/99)
as a poorly-defined 25kt TD.  The last advisory was written on her this
morning at 15Z at which time she was located at 27.0N 98.0W

At 21Z yesterday, the last advisory was written on TS Cristobal, as he
was becoming immensely sheared and making the transition to
extratropical as his circulation merged with the trough.

The tropical wave that moved off Africa on Wednesday is still heading
west, currently located at about 16N 24W (basically OVER the Cape Verde
islands).  There is an obvious broad circulation with it as evident in
the visible satellite imagery, but what little convection there is is
located well to the south of the center.  However, the current southerly
10kt shear will soon reduce to 5kts.  The key inhibiting factor is the
SST's.  This time of year they just haven't warmed up out there, so it's
still 25.5C or so, and that won't change much in the near future. 
Although the chances for this wave developing are slim to none, the
numbers/names next on deck are TD4 or TS Dolly (but I think we'll have
to wait a bit longer to see them).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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