An easterly wave that was "born" one week ago over the Ethiopian Highlands exited the African coast yesterday and quickly got organized. It's now just a couple hundred miles off the coast, halfway to the Cape Verde Islands at approximately 16N 21W. It has a 1006mb Low embedded within it, and is tracking W at 15kts. However, it is forecast to curve toward the WNW-NW and into higher shear and cooler water. The SST now is only around 26C, but could drop to 24C in the next couple of days. It would become TD5 or TS Edouard if it can strengthen before the environmental conditions deteriorate.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
30 July 2008
23 July 2008
Dolly making landfall...
Dolly has strengthened overnight, and is now just miles from the coast (at 16Z) and is a Category 2 hurricane... 85kts and 964mb. Though only 40 miles or so offshore, the eyewall (the engine that drives the rest of the machine) is still over very warm Gulf water. As such, the storm can still continue to strengthen while the entire western half of the storm is over land. The eye is presently located 40 miles ENE of Brownsville TX and is ~23 miles across.
Rainfall totals could reach one foot. Storm surge is in the 4-6 foot ballpark. It's still too early to know the full aftermath, as it's still in progress. Buoy 42020, offshore between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, is reporting 22' waves, and the worst is still coming.
It's moving very slowly (about 6kts) and is now heading nearly parallel to the coast, which means Dolly could still have several hours over water. If you navigate to the link below, you'll find links to radar loops, surface observations, and satellite imagery.
Hardly worth discussing, Cristobal is now a disorganized extratropical storm south of Newfoundland.
The easterly wave near the Cape Verdes has degenerated quite a bit and is now much less of a concern. It will be monitored for signs of redevelopment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
P.S. You can all consider yourselves more educated than CNN, who claims that Dolly is the second storm of the Atlantic season. Hard to reach "D" after only two storms! Granted, it is the second HURRICANE, but not the second storm. Details, details....
Rainfall totals could reach one foot. Storm surge is in the 4-6 foot ballpark. It's still too early to know the full aftermath, as it's still in progress. Buoy 42020, offshore between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, is reporting 22' waves, and the worst is still coming.
It's moving very slowly (about 6kts) and is now heading nearly parallel to the coast, which means Dolly could still have several hours over water. If you navigate to the link below, you'll find links to radar loops, surface observations, and satellite imagery.
Hardly worth discussing, Cristobal is now a disorganized extratropical storm south of Newfoundland.
The easterly wave near the Cape Verdes has degenerated quite a bit and is now much less of a concern. It will be monitored for signs of redevelopment.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
P.S. You can all consider yourselves more educated than CNN, who claims that Dolly is the second storm of the Atlantic season. Hard to reach "D" after only two storms! Granted, it is the second HURRICANE, but not the second storm. Details, details....
22 July 2008
Cristobal heading out to sea, Dolly heading for land...
Cristobal is now east of Cape Cod, south of Nova Scotia, and is a 55kt tropical storm. It will continue heading generally eastward into the north central Atlantic and should only be a tropical system for another day or two.
Dolly, on the other hand, is of much greater concern. Over the last 18 hours, the huge rainband that was far removed from the center has dissipated in favor on centralized deep convection. This is the needed ingredient for strengthening: focusing the latent heating over the center. The latest intensity is 60kts and 991mb, and is getting closer to hurricane status every hour. It's also getting closer to landfall every hour... now just 200 miles southeast of Brownsville and heading NW at 10kts. Landfall is expected early tomorrow morning near Brownsville as a hurricane.
Intensity at landfall is a tricky thing... the storm is showing every sign of rapid intensification, and it's at the classic current intensity to begin RI. Vertical shear is basically negligible, and SSTs are 29C+. So the problem is how fast will Dolly intensify on its approach? NHC is forecasting landfall at 80kts, which is line with the model guidance, but models (and people) don't forecast RI well.
You can already see outer rainbands approaching the coast, and the eyewall is coming into view as well:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
I will also keep a running loop of the short-range Brownsville radar at: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/dolly08/Dolly_22-23Jul08.gif
The latest watches and warnings for Texas and Mexico are plotted graphically at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0408R+gif/
And the easterly wave that exited Africa yesterday is looking very impressive. It's now near the Cape Verde islands, and is consolidating its circulation. It has a 1009mb Low, and is moving W at 15kts. It is not forecast to intensify real quickly, but very gradually, and continue heading W-WNW.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Dolly, on the other hand, is of much greater concern. Over the last 18 hours, the huge rainband that was far removed from the center has dissipated in favor on centralized deep convection. This is the needed ingredient for strengthening: focusing the latent heating over the center. The latest intensity is 60kts and 991mb, and is getting closer to hurricane status every hour. It's also getting closer to landfall every hour... now just 200 miles southeast of Brownsville and heading NW at 10kts. Landfall is expected early tomorrow morning near Brownsville as a hurricane.
Intensity at landfall is a tricky thing... the storm is showing every sign of rapid intensification, and it's at the classic current intensity to begin RI. Vertical shear is basically negligible, and SSTs are 29C+. So the problem is how fast will Dolly intensify on its approach? NHC is forecasting landfall at 80kts, which is line with the model guidance, but models (and people) don't forecast RI well.
You can already see outer rainbands approaching the coast, and the eyewall is coming into view as well:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
I will also keep a running loop of the short-range Brownsville radar at: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/dolly08/Dolly_22-23Jul08.gif
The latest watches and warnings for Texas and Mexico are plotted graphically at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0408R+gif/
And the easterly wave that exited Africa yesterday is looking very impressive. It's now near the Cape Verde islands, and is consolidating its circulation. It has a 1009mb Low, and is moving W at 15kts. It is not forecast to intensify real quickly, but very gradually, and continue heading W-WNW.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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