Ernesto made its way across Florida as a weak Tropical Storm and then Depression... then exited eastern FL near Cape Canaveral, and now heading NNE toward the SC/NC border. It's also getting better organized each hour that it's over the ocean, and could be upgraded to a minimal hurricane by landfall late tonight. The intensity as of 21Z today was 60kts and 991mb.
You can find an ever-growing radar loop of Ernesto's east coast approach at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/ernesto06/Ernesto_31Aug06_LTX.gif
As of this writing, the center is due east of Georgetown SC, due south of Wilmington NC, and heading NNE toward Cape Fear or perhaps Cape Lookout. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of SC and NC, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for northern SC and southern NC up to Cape Lookout
Across the rest of the basin, there is an impressive tropical wave near 11N 25W which certainly bears watching over the coming days. Another circulation can be found about 10 degrees west of that, and also has a shot at development, but the one to the east looks healthier now (better divergence aloft, less shear). The next names on deck are Florence and Gordon.
And of course, http://mcwar.org/tropics/ has the latest satellite imagery, track forecast, and more for the basin.
I'd also like to welcome several new additions to the mailing list, 6 in the past week alone! That brings the total up to about 310 subscribers... homeowners, students, teachers, media, military, enthusiasts, business owners, and more. I'm reminded of and humbled by the large number of people who've opted to subscribe to these updates! This is year #11 for them...
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
31 August 2006
29 August 2006
Ernesto heading for Florida...
The center of Ernesto's circulation finally exited north central Cuba at 06Z this morning (2am EDT). Deep convection has been somewhat sparse and slow to come back, but it is gradually increasing in coverage as more of the storm arrives over the ocean. The ocean is at least 26C down to a depth of 80m in the Florida Straight, and the SST is a tad over 30C, so there's no shortage of energy for the storm, just a shortage of time.
You can track the progress of the storm via Miami's long-range radar at: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/ernesto06/Ernesto_29Aug06.gif
(updating loop, new frame added every 6 minutes or so, beginning at 12Z this morning)
At 15Z this morning, the tropical storm was located at 23.3N 79.5W and tracking NW at 11kts. It only has a generous 24 hours over ocean before hitting the southern tip of the FL peninsula, so at this point, intensification to a hurricane seems very unlikely (it's at 40kts and 1005mb now). As of the latest official forecast, the Keys are in the center of the track "cone", but for a storm without an eye, that doesn't matter so much -- all of southern FL will experience stormy weather beginning today and going into tomorrow. Threats of inland flooding and tornadoes are the highest.
After making its way northward across FL, the forecast takes it up into SC, around Charleston, again as a strong Tropical Storm (a minimal hurricane isn't out of the question).
A tropical wave that exited Africa on Sunday is now located at about 12N 29W. It's moving west, and the environment is favorable for slow development.
And last but not least, this morning is the one-year anniversary of Katrina's landfall on Mississippi and Louisiana... and although not the strongest or deadliest landfall, it was the costliest disaster in US history, by far. You can view the radar-based view of that fateful landfall at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/katrina/Katrina_29Aug05.gif
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
You can track the progress of the storm via Miami's long-range radar at: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/ernesto06/Ernesto_29Aug06.gif
(updating loop, new frame added every 6 minutes or so, beginning at 12Z this morning)
At 15Z this morning, the tropical storm was located at 23.3N 79.5W and tracking NW at 11kts. It only has a generous 24 hours over ocean before hitting the southern tip of the FL peninsula, so at this point, intensification to a hurricane seems very unlikely (it's at 40kts and 1005mb now). As of the latest official forecast, the Keys are in the center of the track "cone", but for a storm without an eye, that doesn't matter so much -- all of southern FL will experience stormy weather beginning today and going into tomorrow. Threats of inland flooding and tornadoes are the highest.
After making its way northward across FL, the forecast takes it up into SC, around Charleston, again as a strong Tropical Storm (a minimal hurricane isn't out of the question).
A tropical wave that exited Africa on Sunday is now located at about 12N 29W. It's moving west, and the environment is favorable for slow development.
And last but not least, this morning is the one-year anniversary of Katrina's landfall on Mississippi and Louisiana... and although not the strongest or deadliest landfall, it was the costliest disaster in US history, by far. You can view the radar-based view of that fateful landfall at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/katrina/Katrina_29Aug05.gif
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
28 August 2006
Ernesto over Cuba...
Debby finally dissipated on Sunday afternoon as an insignificant low-level swirl in the north central Atlantic, now pretty much absorbed by a mid-latitude trough.
Ernesto is still the big story in the basin. The long-range track forecasts from the middle of last week have proven to be very wrong, and the storm has tracked NW instead of W-WNW. So, in this scenario, everyone loses: the storm is scraping over Cuba, which is bad for Cuba and bad for the storm! A Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of southern Florida and the northern Bahamas, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas.
As of 15Z, the intensity is 35kts and 1003mb, barely a tropical storm, but it's also tracking directly over mountainous eastern Cuba.
Once Ernesto leaves Cuba late tonight or early tomorrow morning, it should have a short but critical stay over the ocean before a Florida landfall late Tuesday night. The SSTs will be around 30C and vertical shear 10kts or less, so the trip between Cuba and Florida could allow for rapid intensification. You can keep an eye on the approach via Miami's radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
This is an extraordinarily challenging forecast, because it's approaching the Florida peninsula from the south. A SLIGHT east-west error in track forecast could mean landfall in Apalachicola, Key West, Miami, Charleston, or Wilmington! This angle of approach is sensitive to the smallest track deviations. Miami is presently in the center of the target.
As of right now, the official forecast has the storm scraping eastern FL, crossing over the Gulf Stream, then making a 3rd landfall on North Carolina as a strong hurricane too. This is something that clearly should be watched closely by east coast residents.
Elsewhere, there is a significant tropical wave with an embedded 1010mb Low located at about 17N 40W.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Ernesto is still the big story in the basin. The long-range track forecasts from the middle of last week have proven to be very wrong, and the storm has tracked NW instead of W-WNW. So, in this scenario, everyone loses: the storm is scraping over Cuba, which is bad for Cuba and bad for the storm! A Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of southern Florida and the northern Bahamas, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas.
As of 15Z, the intensity is 35kts and 1003mb, barely a tropical storm, but it's also tracking directly over mountainous eastern Cuba.
Once Ernesto leaves Cuba late tonight or early tomorrow morning, it should have a short but critical stay over the ocean before a Florida landfall late Tuesday night. The SSTs will be around 30C and vertical shear 10kts or less, so the trip between Cuba and Florida could allow for rapid intensification. You can keep an eye on the approach via Miami's radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no
This is an extraordinarily challenging forecast, because it's approaching the Florida peninsula from the south. A SLIGHT east-west error in track forecast could mean landfall in Apalachicola, Key West, Miami, Charleston, or Wilmington! This angle of approach is sensitive to the smallest track deviations. Miami is presently in the center of the target.
As of right now, the official forecast has the storm scraping eastern FL, crossing over the Gulf Stream, then making a 3rd landfall on North Carolina as a strong hurricane too. This is something that clearly should be watched closely by east coast residents.
Elsewhere, there is a significant tropical wave with an embedded 1010mb Low located at about 17N 40W.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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