In the early morning hours on Saturday (around 3am local), Rita crossed the coastline as a powerful Category 3 hurricane, near Sabine, TX on the TX/LA border. Cameron, LA got the eastern eyewall and was severely damaged, as was Lake Charles, LA.
You can view a radar loop that I made of this landfall at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/rita/Rita_23-24Sep05.gif
Also, photojournalist Allan Detrich recorded a sound file during the eyewall passage in Beaumont, TX... you can listen to this short clip at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/rita/rita.WAV. In terms of rainfall, New Orleans got 6.3", Beaumont received about 9"; Center, TX got 10.5"; and the largest total is in Bunkie, LA at 16".
Elsewhere, nothing is of immediate concern as shear seems to dominate many of the classic formation zones. However, there are active waves out there, so if conditions improve, something could form fairly quickly.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
26 September 2005
23 September 2005
Rita less than 24 hours from the coast...
At 15Z, Rita was located at 27.4N 91.9W, about 200 miles from Sabine TX. Aircraft-measured intensity is 115kts and 929mb. It is in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle, so the intensity may fluctuate +/- 10-15 kts. Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Port O'Connor TX eastward to Morgan City LA.
Landfall is still expected to occur between Galveston TX and Cameron LA, perhaps near the small coastal town of Sabine TX. Intensity is a great forecast problem, but should be CAT 3/4 barring any unforeseen changes. The majority of hurricane conditions leading up to landfall will occur during the early morning hours on Saturday, then landfall itself should be around sunrise-ish. Hurricane-force winds will be felt about 85 miles to the east and west of the landfall point, including Houston and Lake Charles. The following map shows the potential storm surge from Rita: http://www.fema.gov/hltdata/attachments/u1_sabine_slosh.jpg
My friend and photojournalist Allan Detrich is in Beaumont TX with reporter Dennis Roddy from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They are at the Civic Center there, and report that the city is a ghost town, barely anyone to be seen, gas is very hard to come by, and winds are ~15mph and picking up slowly. Sites along the coast are already seeing water levels rise several feet: this site shows the tidal gauge data from Sabine, TX, which is right on the coast at the TX/LA state border.
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8770570+Sabine+Pass+North,+TX+&flag=0
You can also follow the storm via the Lake Charles radar at http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klch.shtml or via the Houston radar at http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.khgx.shtml
Part 2 of issues with Rita is that the steering flow is forecast to be basically non-existant once it's inland a bit, leaving it to rain for days over TX/LA/AR/OK... possibly dumping over 2 FEET of rain. And of course, the usual threat of tornadoes exists associated with the hurricane.
Philippe is STILL hanging on as a tropical storm, barely recognizable as a tropical entity. As of 15Z today, it was located at 31.1N 63.2W (just southeast of Bermuda) and the estimated intensity was 35kts and 1005mb. It is heading north, and has prompted Bermuda to issue a Tropical Storm Warning.
Elsewhere, something that spun off of Philippe is presently halfway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and could be worth watching over the next few days. Also, a large tropical wave that exited Africa yesterday morning is located at about 12N 28W and bears watching... although the vertical shear is VERY high over it now, the low-level energy should persist and could develop when conditions improve.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Landfall is still expected to occur between Galveston TX and Cameron LA, perhaps near the small coastal town of Sabine TX. Intensity is a great forecast problem, but should be CAT 3/4 barring any unforeseen changes. The majority of hurricane conditions leading up to landfall will occur during the early morning hours on Saturday, then landfall itself should be around sunrise-ish. Hurricane-force winds will be felt about 85 miles to the east and west of the landfall point, including Houston and Lake Charles. The following map shows the potential storm surge from Rita: http://www.fema.gov/hltdata/attachments/u1_sabine_slosh.jpg
My friend and photojournalist Allan Detrich is in Beaumont TX with reporter Dennis Roddy from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They are at the Civic Center there, and report that the city is a ghost town, barely anyone to be seen, gas is very hard to come by, and winds are ~15mph and picking up slowly. Sites along the coast are already seeing water levels rise several feet: this site shows the tidal gauge data from Sabine, TX, which is right on the coast at the TX/LA state border.
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8770570+Sabine+Pass+North,+TX+&flag=0
You can also follow the storm via the Lake Charles radar at http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klch.shtml or via the Houston radar at http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.khgx.shtml
Part 2 of issues with Rita is that the steering flow is forecast to be basically non-existant once it's inland a bit, leaving it to rain for days over TX/LA/AR/OK... possibly dumping over 2 FEET of rain. And of course, the usual threat of tornadoes exists associated with the hurricane.
Philippe is STILL hanging on as a tropical storm, barely recognizable as a tropical entity. As of 15Z today, it was located at 31.1N 63.2W (just southeast of Bermuda) and the estimated intensity was 35kts and 1005mb. It is heading north, and has prompted Bermuda to issue a Tropical Storm Warning.
Elsewhere, something that spun off of Philippe is presently halfway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and could be worth watching over the next few days. Also, a large tropical wave that exited Africa yesterday morning is located at about 12N 28W and bears watching... although the vertical shear is VERY high over it now, the low-level energy should persist and could develop when conditions improve.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
22 September 2005
Rita breaks the 900 barrier...
At 03Z today, Hurricane Rita's central pressure bottomed out at 897mb, nudging past the rarely-broken 900mb threshold. Only 3 other storms have achieved this intensity: Gilbert 1988 (888mb), Labor Day 1935 (892mb), and Allen 1980 (899mb). This occurred just 24 days after Katrina reached its peak intensity of 902mb, and virtually at the same location.
Since then the storm has weakened a BIT, and is presently at 915mb and ~140kts. Given that such a high intensity is so hard to achieve, let alone maintain, the storm is expected to weaken further over the next 24-36 hours prior to landfall. BUT, keep in mind that a storm at 907mb has a looong way to weaken before it's not major, so landfall will almost certainly be as a CAT3/4 hurricane. It's moving WNW at 8kts, but this motion will become NW with time as the steering ridge to its north shifts eastward. The latest position is 25.4N 88.7W, or about 225 miles due south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Landfall is becoming a more ominous event, and is expected to occur in the early morning hours on Saturday as a major hurricane. The latest official track forecast and model guidance have shifted eastward a bit, now placing the prime target just east of Galveston Bay. Hurricane Warnings are in place now from Matagorda Bay TX eastward to Atchafalaya Bay LA, and evacuations are underway in many cities within the warning area (also in New Orleans with fears of the rainfall breaking the patched levees). Hurricane-force winds now extend 75 miles from the center.
Looking beyond landfall, the steering flow is forecast to dwindle, leaving Rita to stall over TX/OK/AR/LA, perhaps dumping upwards of 2 feet of rain over the area. This has to potential to be a very catastrophic storm. The eyewall is only one part of the storm... the coast has to contend with a large storm surge, and places inland have to contend with rain-induced flooding and spiral band-spawned tornadoes.
Philippe is still a tropical storm, with estimated intensity at 35kts and 1005mb. It is quickly losing tropical characteristics and today will likely be its last day as a tropical system. The transitioning system is heading north toward the north-central Atlantic.
The season's NTC stands at 175% now; only ten years since 1900 have had higher seasonal NTCs, and this season isn't over yet.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
Since then the storm has weakened a BIT, and is presently at 915mb and ~140kts. Given that such a high intensity is so hard to achieve, let alone maintain, the storm is expected to weaken further over the next 24-36 hours prior to landfall. BUT, keep in mind that a storm at 907mb has a looong way to weaken before it's not major, so landfall will almost certainly be as a CAT3/4 hurricane. It's moving WNW at 8kts, but this motion will become NW with time as the steering ridge to its north shifts eastward. The latest position is 25.4N 88.7W, or about 225 miles due south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Landfall is becoming a more ominous event, and is expected to occur in the early morning hours on Saturday as a major hurricane. The latest official track forecast and model guidance have shifted eastward a bit, now placing the prime target just east of Galveston Bay. Hurricane Warnings are in place now from Matagorda Bay TX eastward to Atchafalaya Bay LA, and evacuations are underway in many cities within the warning area (also in New Orleans with fears of the rainfall breaking the patched levees). Hurricane-force winds now extend 75 miles from the center.
Looking beyond landfall, the steering flow is forecast to dwindle, leaving Rita to stall over TX/OK/AR/LA, perhaps dumping upwards of 2 feet of rain over the area. This has to potential to be a very catastrophic storm. The eyewall is only one part of the storm... the coast has to contend with a large storm surge, and places inland have to contend with rain-induced flooding and spiral band-spawned tornadoes.
Philippe is still a tropical storm, with estimated intensity at 35kts and 1005mb. It is quickly losing tropical characteristics and today will likely be its last day as a tropical system. The transitioning system is heading north toward the north-central Atlantic.
The season's NTC stands at 175% now; only ten years since 1900 have had higher seasonal NTCs, and this season isn't over yet.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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