Nicholas finally absorbed...

At 21Z today, the final advisory was written on Nicholas, 10 days after
the first one was written.  Last position was at 24.3N 56.8W with 25kt
winds.  He has been absorbed by a mid-latitude trough.

Unless something else forms in the remaining five weeks of the official
season (which is certainly possible), the next update will be my final
season summary.

As of now, the season stands at:
14    Named Storms
72.00 Named Storm Days
6     Hurricanes
31.50 Hurricane Days
3     Intense Hurricanes
16.25 Intense Hurricane Days (2nd highest EVER!)

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Nicholas still out there...

It's been a while since my last update, but very little has transpired. 
Since 10/14, TD19 was upgraded to TS Nicholas on 10/15, and never
reached hurricane intensity.  The steering flow has been relatively weak
and the vertical shear has been moderately high, resulting in a
quasi-stationary storm that has struggled to maintain organization.

At 15Z today, TS Nicholas was located at 18.5N 51.5W and tracking W at
7kts.  Intensity is back up to 45kts and MSLP has been dropped to
1002mb.  From the satellite perspective, the storm has made a noticeable
comeback in deep convection, although the shear is still apparent.  The
forecast is for a northward turn and gradual weakening.

Nicholas has accumulated 6.75 Named Storm Days, and 1-2 more are
probably in store.  I believe this brings the season total up to 69.75
NSD so far (the climatological seasonal average is about 49).  Another
note on climatology... this season is ALREADY 62% more active than the
average season, and there's still another five weeks left ("activity"
defined as a function of Named Storms, Named Storm Days, Hurricanes,
Hurricane Days, Intense Hurricanes, and Intense Hurricane Days).  The
last year that was this active was 1999.  See
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/NTC.html for a look
at some recent past seasons.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Mindy dissipates, TD19 nearly a TS...

At 03Z today, the final advisory was written on Mindy as she completed
the extratropical transition and is now fully absorbed by a trough.  She
never reached hurricane strength, but did accumulate 2.0 Named Storm
Days.

TD19 continues to organize east of the Lesser Antilles.  This morning's
infrared satellite imagery shows a very cold CDO, with cloud tops as
cold as -85C at times.  The low-level center, although somewhat
challenging to find, is approximately under the CDO.  As of 15Z, TD19
was at 10.8N 41.4W and tracking WNW at 8kts.  Intensity is estimated to
be 30kts and 1006mb.  This will likely be upgraded to TS Nicholas at the
21Z advisory today, and could reach hurricane strength during the
weekend.  The track forecast recurves the storm by about 47W, sneaking
north through a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  However, if the
ridge does not break down according to the models, the track will be
forced more westerly.  Just something to keep an eye on.

Elsewhere, there is an area of disturbed weather over the western
Caribbean Sea, right by Honduras and Nicaragua.  Conditions are
favorable for development, but proximity to land could hinder it.  If it
continues a westward drift, it stands a better chance of developing in
the EastPac.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.