Take a ride on the wavetrain...

Take a ride on the wavetrain...

Africa and the tropical Atlantic have become crowded with easterly
waves, greatly increasing the odds that at least one will develop.  As
many as 5 waves can be found from the Lesser Antilles eastward to
central Africa, some of which are looking quite interesting.

The westmost is the one we've been watching for a few days now,
presently at about 15N 65W and tracking W at 15kts.  It has had a
drastic increase in deep convection and some band-like features appear
to be forming.

Watching a large area of convection and a broad circulation at about 10N
40W (halfway between Lesser Antilles and Africa) that's tracking W at
15kts.  Also, a similar system to the previous is at about 10N 20W
(south of the Cape Verde Islands) and tracking W at 15kts.

Africa still has a couple fairly impressive MCCs (mesoscale convective
complexes) trekking westward across it and should be watched for
development over the next week as they enter the eastern Atlantic.

The majority of the computer models do not favor any of the systems
currently in the Atlantic, but do develop one that's over
western/central Africa now.

The next numbers/names on deck are 9/Fabian and 10/Grace.

I will be gone through 1 Sep for vacation, so that would be the next
update, assuming something's happening then.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Two easterly waves worth watching in the central Atlantic...

The wave and embedded Low I mentioned yesterday just east of the Lesser
Antilles is a bit less organized today, and in fact, appears to no
longer have an embedded Low.  It is at about 14N 55W and moving W at
15kts.

And the wave that exited the African coast yesterday is now passing west
of the Cape Verde Islands and tracking W at 10kts.  The axis of the wave
is at about 35W.

Of these two waves, the models favor the eastern one for development,
but not very significant.  However, a short wavelength wavetrain is
trekking across Africa and will eject a new easterly wave into the
tropical Atlantic about every two days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Erika made landfall, tropical wave still traversing the central Atlantic...

TS Erika ended up being a well-forecast storm, particularly in terms of
the track.  The intensity was persistently overforecast, and she never
reached hurricane status.  Although the MSLP dropped to 987mb and there
was a beautiful eye as seen from radar, maximum reported winds were
60kts.  Landfall occured on Saturday (August 16) at 11Z near Laguna
Madre, Mexico.  She ten continued westward acorss Mexico and if I'm not
mistaken, has entered the East Pacific just south of the tip of the Baja
Peninsula.

Elsewhere, the tropical wave I mentioned in Friday's update is still
intact and slowly organizing.  Presently at about 14N 48W, it's tracking
WNW at 12kts and has a 1014mb Low embedded in the wave.  It is just
crossing the 28C isotherm and SSTs will continue to be favorable; also,
vertical shear is favorable for development.  Lastly, a wave still over
Africa seems favored by many models to develop, so we'll keep an eye on
the deep tropics this week for perhaps a couple storms.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.