Otto spent 1.5 days as a hurricane, though was visibly losing its tropical characteristics in a hurry (weaker and displaced convection, frontal bands, etc.). At 03Z on Sunday, it was downgraded to a TS, then twelve hours later, advisories were ceased on the system as it became an extratropical cyclone about 400 miles west of the Azores.
There is a 1008mb Low associated with a disturbance that has been festering in the western Caribbean for several days (I mentioned it in my update on Friday). It's currently located on the tip of the Nicaragua/Honduras border and drifting to the WNW. The majority of models gradually develop this system into a TS (Paula) as it heads NW toward Cozumel, then recurving to the NE toward Cuba/Florida. Intensification should be somewhat limited due to the expected proximity to land throughout the next few days.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
08 October 2010
Hurricane Otto heading out to the north central Atlantic...
Since my last update on Tuesday, the disturbance I referenced was upgraded to STD17 on Wednesday morning, STS Otto on Wednesday afternoon, TS Otto on Thursday morning, and now Hurricane Otto as of 15Z today. Sorry about the lack of updates since Tuesday!
The storm took a while to get organized and acquire purely tropical characteristics, and as such, it was sub-tropical for at least a couple of days. As I write this, it definitely is tropical, and has a rather impressive satellite presentation with nearly -85C cloud tops in the CDO. There is not yet an eye apparent in the VIS or IR, but that could certainly change in the coming hours.
The current intensity is 65kts and 979mb, making Otto the 8th hurricane of the season. Right now, we're just one TS away from matching the active 2008 season which had 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The storm is located about 550 miles north of Puerto Rico and tracking ENE at 15kts. The forecast is for some additional strengthening, then a rapid transition to extratropical as it merges with a mid-latitude trough which will whisk the system out to the north central Atlantic over the next 3 days.
Elsewhere, there's a low-level swirl associated with an easterly wave located north of Panama. This doesn't look too likely to develop in the foreseeable future.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The storm took a while to get organized and acquire purely tropical characteristics, and as such, it was sub-tropical for at least a couple of days. As I write this, it definitely is tropical, and has a rather impressive satellite presentation with nearly -85C cloud tops in the CDO. There is not yet an eye apparent in the VIS or IR, but that could certainly change in the coming hours.
The current intensity is 65kts and 979mb, making Otto the 8th hurricane of the season. Right now, we're just one TS away from matching the active 2008 season which had 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The storm is located about 550 miles north of Puerto Rico and tracking ENE at 15kts. The forecast is for some additional strengthening, then a rapid transition to extratropical as it merges with a mid-latitude trough which will whisk the system out to the north central Atlantic over the next 3 days.
Elsewhere, there's a low-level swirl associated with an easterly wave located north of Panama. This doesn't look too likely to develop in the foreseeable future.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
05 October 2010
Disturbance near Windward Islands getting organized...
Back on Sept 25, an easterly wave exited the African coast and has been making its way westward through the deep tropics. For much of the last 1.5 weeks, it has been a feature of interest, but not great interest. In the past couple of days however, the circulation and convection have become more concentrated, and the system is now just north of Puerto Rico. Using the long-range radar from San Juan, we can see the weak circulation: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes.
It's in about 10kts of vertical shear (expected to decrease slightly over the next couple of days) and over 29C water (remaining steady over the next couple of days). The majority of models now develop this system, bringing it to TS intensity within a day, and hurricane intensity in 2-4 days. As far as the track goes, models are in agreement that it will recurve out to the open ocean in about 2 days... drifting to the NW prior to that.
The next name on the list is Otto.
It's truly remarkable that the US has not had a hurricane landfall this season... it's been quite an active season so far, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. But, countries to our south haven't been so fortunate. It's been a very bad year for landfalls and tropical cyclone effects in most of central America and Mexico... also Bermuda and Newfoundland had noteworthy, historic encounters.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
It's in about 10kts of vertical shear (expected to decrease slightly over the next couple of days) and over 29C water (remaining steady over the next couple of days). The majority of models now develop this system, bringing it to TS intensity within a day, and hurricane intensity in 2-4 days. As far as the track goes, models are in agreement that it will recurve out to the open ocean in about 2 days... drifting to the NW prior to that.
The next name on the list is Otto.
It's truly remarkable that the US has not had a hurricane landfall this season... it's been quite an active season so far, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. But, countries to our south haven't been so fortunate. It's been a very bad year for landfalls and tropical cyclone effects in most of central America and Mexico... also Bermuda and Newfoundland had noteworthy, historic encounters.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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