TD1 upgraded to TS Alberto...

At 15Z today, the season's first named storm formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Alberto.  This upgrade was based on an aircraft recon flight into the storm this morning and a nearby ship report.  An active microwave scatterometer also observed 35-40kt surface winds on the north and east quadrants of the storm center.  Alberto is located at 23.9N 88.1W,  and tracking NW at 8kts.  Measured intensity is 40kts and 1004mb, and is narrowly holding onto TS status.

The satellite presentation is not as impressive today, as the entire bulk of deep convection is located east of the low-level center, indicating respectable westerly wind shear. However, there is a strong rain band on the east side, and a weaker one to its east that is already making its presence felt in the western FL peninsula.  SSTs are around 28C, and the storm is passing over the Loop Current in the Gulf, which means slightly higher SSTs and noticeably higher heat content during the next day or so.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=byx&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=no

The NW motion should soon become more northerly, then northeasterly by Monday morning.  It is still expected to make landfall north of Tampa late Monday night as a moderate TS.  Computer model guidance is fairly consistent with the track... practically all solutions lie between Tampa and Tallassee.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Tropical Depression 1 forms in the northwest Caribbean...

After over a week of crawling and festering, an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean finally developed a closed surface circulation, and was upgraded to TD1 at 13Z today.  It has a very impressive satellite presentation, and is nearly a Tropical Storm.  There is a very robust and cold CDO, or Central Dense Overcast, a sign of healthy intensification seen in the early stages of development.

At 13Z, TD1 was located at 21.1N 85.3W and moving NNW at 10kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 30kts and the minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) is 1003mb.  It is expected to strengthen to a TS later today as it heads into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  If this intensifies to 35kts, it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm of the season (as an aside, the first named storm of 2005 formed on June 8).  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for western Cuba.  The forecast track will also make this our first landfalling storm of the year too, probably north of Tampa, FL late Monday night (the first named storm of 2005 made landfall on the FL/AL border on June 11 as a 50kt TS).  After crossing the FL peninsula, it's predicted to travel northeast along the east coast of the US as it speeds up and merges with a mid-latitude trough.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

2005 Atlantic Best Track

The NHC has just completed their "Best Track" reanalysis of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.  This allows the forecasters and hurricane specialists to look at the storms in hindsight and evaluate with an objective eye the track and intensity.  This often changes the numbers a bit, but they more accurately reflect what happened, which is not always the case in the hurried operational timeframe.
You can find the individual storm summaries at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005atlan.shtml

So, we ended up with 27 Tropical Storms, 15 Hurricanes, and 7 Major Hurricanes.  Amazingly, 4 of those major hurricanes were Category 5s.  These huge numbers, combined with the cumulative longevity of them, produced a season that was 276% of an "average" season (this is the NTC or Net Tropical Cyclone activity).

Longevity:
Storm with most time spent at 35kts+: Ophelia (10.75 days)
Storm with most time spent at 65kts+: Wilma (7.50 days)
Storm with most time spent at 100kts+: Wilma (4.75 days)

Contributions to season's NTC (out of 100%):
1st: Wilma (12.9%)
2nd: Emily (12.2%)
3rd: Rita (10.0%)
4th: Dennis (9.0%)
5th: Katrina (8.7%)

Highest Intensity (pressure and wind):
1st: Wilma (882mb and 160kts)
2nd: Rita (895mb 155kts)
3rd: Katrina (902mb 150kts)
4th: Emily (929mb and 140kts)
5th: Dennis (930mb and 130kts)

Deadliest:
1st: Katrina (1336)
2nd: Stan (80)
3rd: Dennis (42)
4th: Alpha (26)
5th: Wilma (22)

Costliest:
1st: Katrina ($75 bil)
2nd: Wilma ($12.2 bil)
3rd: Rita ($10.0 bil)
4th: Dennis ($2.2 bil)
5th: Cindy ($0.3 bil)


Also, CSU's April forecast for the 2006 season was just issued today and is available at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.