Gustav goes tropical, and scrapes the NC coast.

Monday evening into Tuesday morning was quite the treat to anyone
carefully watching Gustav's convective patterns (as I'm sure most of you
were...).  He made the transition from subtropical to tropical, and even
without data on low-level wind distribution or vertical temperature
distribution, one could see the storm contract, pulling the deep
convection over the center, and forming feeder bands.  Combined WITH
knowledge from aircraft and AMSU, we know that the surface winds were
getting stronger toward the center of circulation and that a warm core
aloft was becoming established.  In short, he's now Tropical Storm
Gustav (as of 12Z today).

The intensity has been increasing, now up to 50kts and 986mb.  The winds
seem weak for a pressure that low, but it's intensifying and the two
fields are most likely not in equilibrium.  Now on to the track... he is
moving north, which means the westward advance toward mainland NC has
ceased.  However, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for most of the
NC and VA coasts.  The center of the strom should pass over or very near
Cape Hatteras, NC.  He's about at his closest approach now (3pm
Eastern), and after this, will rapidly accelerate out ot sea in advance
of a trough.

The 18Z advisory places TS Gustav at 34.8N 75.8W and tracking N at
9kts.  As mentioned earlier, the intensity is 50kts and 986mb.  With the
aid of baroclinic enhancement, Gustav should reach hurricane strength
late tonight or by midday Wednesday.  

The tropical wave in the central Atlantic has become much less defined
now, and is in high shear, so it will not be an area of concern for a
while.

NHC is monitoring the west central Gulf of Mexico for possible
development of a Low.  Some models hint at something there as well. 
Right now, it's a large area of disturbed weather with slightly lowered
pressures.  Given the somewhat favorable conditions though, it's not
unreasonable to expect development from it over the next few days.

FYI, today is the climatological peak of activity for the Atlantic
hurricane season, yet we still have not had a hurricane.  Recall last
year the first hurricane formed on Sept 8 and then there were nine of
them from that date through the end of November!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

STD8 becomes STS Gustav and threatens US East Coast.

Just six hours after being classified as STD8, it was upgraded to
Subtropical Storm Gustav based on aircraft recon flight into the storm. 
You ask:  "What's with all this 'SUBtropical' talk?"  All that means is
that the storm is not purely tropical in nature, but has characteristics
of both tropical and extratropical cyclones (largely dealing with
vertical temperature structure, horizontal wind distribution, convective
patterns, etc).  At 18Z today, Gustav was located at 32.1N 74.4W and
tracking WNW at 9 kts.  Intesnity is 40kts and 1003mb.  

The forecast is for continued gradual strengthening (perhaps to minimal
hurricane status) as it heads NW toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. 
It SHOULD veer away from actual landfall just miles shy of the coast as
a trough lifts it out to sea.  Closest appraoch is expected to be on
Tuesday evening by Cape Hatteras.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
for the southern VA coast and extreme southern MD, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for nearly all of the NC coast.  These may need to
be upgraded to Hurricane Watches/Warnings if it intensifies quicker than
forecast.

The wave that was near the Cape Verde Islands is now at about 13N 40W
and tracking W at 10kts.  It has a 1010mb Low and is over amply warm
SST's but is in fairly high shear, so development is hindered for the
time.  The models are reluctant to intensify this system, and since they
so wonderfully nailed the development and track of Gustav, perhaps we
should weigh that into our forecasts.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Fay and TD7 dissipate, STD8 forms southwest of Bermuda, Cape Verde wave still being watched.

The last advisory was written on Fay at 15Z yesterday as she dissipated
over central TX.

Tiny TD7 was short-lived and dissipated just 24 hours after forming.  It
moved WNW a bit and approached the immense circulation of the next storm
to be discussed.

Subtropical Depression 8 formed at 15Z today from the large area of
disturbed weather near the West Indes.  As of 15Z, the center is at
28.7N 70.4W (about 570km SW of Bermuda) and tracking N at 10kts. 
Intensity was estimated at 30kts and 1010mb, but an aircraft will
investigate the system later today... it is suspected that it's stronger
than initial estimates.  The forecast is for gradual strengthening and
for a curve to the NW, approaching the southern NC coast, but a
mid-latitude trough should come to the rescue by Tuesday morning and
whisk it out to sea.  If the trough should happen to bypass it, landfall
is almost certain because the next trough would be a few days away.

The tropical wave near 12N 33W now has a 1010mb Low embedded in it and
is still tracking W at 15kts.  The short-term environment is unfavorable
owing to high shear to its immediate north.  However, since the wave has
held together this long, there's reason to suspect that as soon as it
finds more favorable conditions, it will take advantage of them.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.