Rafael makes rare landfall in Cuba, headed into Gulf of Mexico

Since my post on Tuesday, not only did Rafael become the season's 11th hurricane, it continued to intensify prior to reaching Cuba and made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon in western Cuba (the season's 5th major hurricane).

As of Thursday afternoon, Rafael is still a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks west into the central Gulf of Mexico.  It is forecast to gradually weaken, but the track remains a huge question mark beyond Saturday.  The infamous "squashed spider" look makes a return... the variability among the models and among ensemble members within a model is due to either a subtle ridge developing to its northwest (nudging it south) or a deeper trough to its north (nudging it north).

The official track forecast from NHC is trending toward the southwest turn, but don't be too surprised if it ends up moderating more to the north.  Regardless, fairly hostile conditions exist in the Gulf and Rafael's time as a hurricane will run out this weekend.  So thankfully, it does not appear that Rafael will make another impactful landfall after Cuba.

Major hurricanes are extremely rare this late in the season.  Going back to 1851, there had been only ten of them in November, not counting Rafael.  Three of those ten made landfall in Cuba as major hurricanes.  So now counting Rafael, it's four out of eleven.  Not surprisingly for this month, the activity is concentrated in the Caribbean Sea.

Speaking of the Caribbean Sea, the ocean heat content averaged over the area is back to record-breaking high.  And it's not just high, but MUCH higher than even the climatological peak of the year!  If the ocean has anything to say about the rest of hurricane season, it's not over yet.  By the way, the ocean heat content averaged over the Gulf of Mexico is also back to record-breaking high for the date.

Finally, another brief check on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy... that's up to 131% of average for the date, and in the top 12% of all years in the historical records.

This chart below contains the same data as the one above, but shown by daily amounts rather than cumulative values.  That really highlights how strange this season has been with an explosive beginning, a quiet mid-section, and an active ending.  Not every year follows the climatological curve!

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky