23 July 2021

Disturbance off southeast US coast likely just a rainmaker

Forecast rainfall totals through Monday morning.

A low pressure system is centered about 150 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border, right over the core of the toasty Gulf Stream.  It actually originated over land, drifted east, then got a boost from the warm Atlantic water and is now tagged as Invest 90L.  It's facing some fairly hostile environmental conditions, so the odds of development are slim (30% from NHC), but it will bring a lot of rain and risk of flooding to Florida in the coming days.

The image below shows "precipitable water", or the water content of the atmosphere, and is great at illustrating where the deep dry air is (blues) and where the moisture envelope associated with the disturbance is (dark reds).  It also reiterates the point about how elongated and disorganized the system is.

The disturbance is forecast to head back west across the Florida peninsula over the next few days, and eventually dissipate.  There's not much in the way of model guidance that supports development of this, so we certainly aren't expecting it to become a tropical storm, but if it should beat the odds, the next name on the list is Fred.  Elsewhere across the basin, it is very quiet, and probably will remain quiet until early August.

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