28 June 2021

Tropical Storm Danny forms near South Carolina coast

A small low pressure system off the coast of the southeast U.S. was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4 on Monday morning, and then to Tropical Storm Danny on Monday afternoon.  It is headed toward land and will make landfall on Monday evening as a weak tropical storm.  Minimal rainfall and storm surge are expected, but there could be isolated spots with flash flooding in South Carolina and Georgia.

Having the fourth named storm form prior to July is exceptionally rare; it has happened just three times in the past: 2020 (Dolly), 2016 (Danielle), 2012 (Debby). 

Much further east, we are still watching Invest 95L which is in the deep tropics between Cabo Verde and the Lesser Antilles (it will reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday).  The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 40% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next five days, and the latest 7-day guidance from the European model's ensemble is shown below (track density):

It has some environmental obstacles in its way, but models have been generally consistent on developing this.  Should it become a tropical storm at some point, the next name on the list is Elsa.  Elsa is a brand new name to the lists, and it replaces Erika which was retired after the 2015 season.

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