16 June 2017

Outlook generally unchanged since Thursday's update

This will be very brief, since there isn't much to add other than to say that the forecast appears to still be on track.  The odds remain good that a tropical cyclone will develop near the Yucatan Peninsula in the next few days then drift toward the northwest or north through the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

This has been a slow-moving, slowly-evolving system, and that's not about to change.  If it congeals into something more centralized and organized, a tropical depression could form.  Once in the gulf, environmental conditions should be favorable for further development, and a tropical storm is certainly not out of the question.  If it reaches that intensity, it would be named Bret.

Regardless of the exact track, at this point, coastal impacts appear to be timed around Tuesday, though that is a rough guess for something that hasn't formed yet.

And the easterly wave I very briefly mentioned in yesterday's update remains a feature of interest.  Models tend to develop it for the next 4-5 days, then once it enters the eastern Caribbean, it encounters strong shear and loses its identity.  In the meantime, it could be something to watch in the Windward Islands in the Tuesday-ish timeframe.  It's currently centered about 1800 miles east of *French Guiana* (way south).

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